Track: Soft 5 Rail: Out 10m 1600m – Winning Post. Out 7m remainder
Best Bet: Race 4 – ALL TOO SOON
Race 1: BM74 Handicap 3YO 1300m
MORE SUNDAYS (9) couldn’t have been more impressive at his debut when leading throughout at Geelong. This is obviously harder but he showed that day that he was strong through the line, he should be able to lead again here and with the rail out, that could be the place to be.
Dangers:
If they do go crazy in front, GEM SONG (1) will be ready to pounce. The wide draw does him no favours but he will get back anyway, he has been super at his two wins and has been sharpened up with two trials for this. CONDEMNED (3) was a winner on debut and then sent straight to the paddock, he maps well, and no doubt will have come on during his time in the paddock. RANIER (4) was poorly away before getting outside the leader resuming, he had his chance but was still coming late.
Race 2: BM88 Handicap 1600m
INSTANT DE REVE (4) was having his first start in Australia last time when only fair in the run home over 7 furlongs. He had not raced in 10 months, so he obviously needed the run, no doubt Waller would have improved him a stack off that.
Dangers:
ABDON (5) ticks a lot of the same boxes as our top selection, was first-up in Oz last time but he was seen south of the border and chased hard. He will also have improved off that run. SOUCHEZ (6) ran on hard resuming then had no luck last time when held-up at a vital stage. He hasn’t won in a while but looks to have come back well this prep. STEETS OF AVALON (9) will be up on the speed, see if that is advantageous in the first race. He has been racing super in Victoria, but this looks harder.
Race 3: Highway Handicap Class 3 1300m
NOT BOSSY (12) was last seen in one of these a fortnight ago here, she got well back as she is likely to do so again from the draw but was super through the line. She was slightly held-up at a vital stage also, if the back markers can get into the race she looks a great each-way bet.
Dangers:
AS with all these Highway races they can be quite tricky to bet into to. TRISTAN DE ANGEL (6) has to be respected, anything from the Dunn stable travelling south must be. He won two of his first four races before being sent to the paddock including his debut. Watch for any confidence in the betting which is a key indicator with this stable. SAFE LANDING (5) has plenty of speed and looks the leader but does have to step out of maiden grade. TABLE MOUNTAIN (4) narrowly missed in an easier Highway last time after a chequered passage and running on hard.
Race 4: BM88 Handicap 2000m
ALL TOO SOON (6) could not have been any more impressive last time, she was second-up against the girls on soft ground and after overcoming a slightly hampered passage in the run home, she was way too strong running away. She should be at peak fitness here third-up and out to the 2000m looks ideal. Against the boys and the extreme draw just means we will get a better price on the good thing of the day.
Dangers:
QUICK DEFENCE (5) has been up for a long time but is still racing well, didn’t have all the favours when running on to win well last time in an easier race across town. CARZOFF (1) has hit the line well at his last couple and this looks easier, last time he was here at the track and distance he just failed to run it right out. THE LORD MAYOR (8) hasn’t don much since arriving in Australia but he wasn’t far away in a NZ Derby and should be fitter here.
Race 5: Concorde Stakes 1000m
INVINCIBLE STAR (5) faces her toughest test to date, but she is on her way to the Everest so she should be able to handle this class rise. She has so much speed and depending on how the track is playing, expect her to lead all the way. She was a brilliant trial winner recently and looks ready to go, she was last seen down the straight when narrowly run down by Merchant Navy who has tasted international success since. She will be too quick.
Dangers:
Obviously REDZEL (1) is the class factor. He has a stack of speed also but seriously doubt he will cross the mare, being first-up outside what will be a hot speed might be to his undoing. KAEPERNICK (4) will be hugs odds and will get back fresh, but if ridden for luck and the speed is ridiculous he may be able to run into a placing fresh. THE MONSTAR (3) is next best but looks to be making up numbers.
Race 6: Tramway Stakes 1400m
PIERATA (4) was simply too speedy for Kementari first-up, that horse has since come out and was 5/1 against Winx? Sure, Pierata had the tactical advantage that day but he didn’t do everything right. From the nice draw expect that he will be right up on the speed and getting the jump on his main rivals, this former star of the 3YO ranks will now be talked about as a star of the open class.
Dangers:
LANCIATO (9) was super resuming behind the top pick, he is a perfect 3/3 when second-up and should get the right tempo. LE ROMAIN (1) could not have been more impressive fresh but he did have everything go to plan and got the run of the race. He is drawn wide here and expect that they will be positive, but it looks as if he will have to sit off the fence. He looks a great lay if that’s not the place to be in earlier races. TOM MELBOURNE (12) is the perennial bridesmaid, he is first-up, honest as the day is long, has trialed well and must be included in all exotics.
Race 7: Chelmsford Stakes WFA 1600m
RELIGIFY (5) will be big odds here but was only beaten 4 lengths by Winx last start. He was checked early on which would have hampered his confidence before getting out and hitting the line ok. He will get the softest of runs here and if the fence isn’t off and ridden for luck, looks a nice each-way bet at huge odds.
Dangers:
CABEZA DE VACA (10) comes through that same race and although was given windburn by the great mare when she went on by, she stuck on ok after being on the speed. She has an excellent record second-up also. UNFORGOTTEN (15) is the other coming through that race and ran on well, just looks under the odds if you can’t get $5 or better about the mare. SINGLE GAZE (13) next best, will probably need the run but looks an interesting addition to the Waller stable.
Race 8: Darley Furious Stakes 3YO Fillies 1200m
LET EM SLEEP ON IT (11) is resuming off a break and given a quiet couple of trials, she gets the blinkers on for the first time and has placed at both previous fresh runs. Expect her to be a big improver with that gear change and up in the speed.
Dangers:
MISS FABULASS (12) is a brilliantly bred son of Frankel out of the sensational mare Samantha Miss. She showed a stack of speed leading throughout to get her maiden win, this is obviously harder but see how the track is playing. PRETTY IN PINK (8) will be the one charging home if the leaders go at it, she is still undefeated after a brilliant win at Scone at Listed level before going to the paddock. PURE ELATION (3) is resuming but just may need a little luck off the inside as there is a stack of speed likely to cross her.
Race 9: BM94 Handicap 1400m
Looks an open race on paper and happy to oppose the favourite. SIR PLUSH (5) was huge odds in a similar race last time, was out the back and found trouble before running on hard to just miss the placings. With an evenly bunched lot there could be a few tactic variations and the speed may be on.
Dangers:
BEST OF DAYS (7) was having his first Australian start last time and it may pay to forgive that he even went around after having no luck. He looks to be still wanting further and although he will be well favoured he looks a good risk, unless he is a lot better than I expect. MURAAQEB (10) comes north and has a good record second-up, he wasn’t overly impressive though fresh when seemingly having every chance. SAMBRO (3) was going well before the break but just may need the run. Any rain around wouldn’t hurt his chances. Happy to play around the favourite in the Quaddie.