Moonee Valley Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – CROWN WITNESS
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Race 1: 2YO Fillies NMW Plate 1000m
With 8 of the 13 runners facing the starter for the first time, it is impossible to tip/bet with any confidence here. ORIENTAL LILY (10) has been to the races once and it was here at the Valley which is a big advantage, she was well beaten but found the line ok and should be sharpened up with the addition of the blinkers. MAGNICITY (9) went up the straight at Flemington last time and was only beaten 3 lengths at Group Three level, this is a lot easier. Of the un-raced brigade, watch for any money for LOVING GABY (8) who is a recent trial winner and EXCELIDA (4) from the strong Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard. Tough start to the night.
Race 2: 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m
Obviously, there is going to be big concerns around the Weir runners tonight, but we have to take the race on face value and therefore are tipping SUNRISE DANCER (10) she has placed at 5 of her 6 career starts, has shown versatility and although drawn out, if she can get cover, she can work home nicely. She over-raced las time at Sandown and still fought on well to place, and has the advantage of racing here before.
Dangers:
DUKE OF MAGNUS (3) was heavily backed into favourite at Geelong las start, he was closing all the time and really attacked the line. The extra 100m looks to suit. AURORA SUNSET (5) has been very costly for punters, she has been beaten well into red figures at both starts. She obviously has the ability and at her debut she was a tragedy beaten. Happy to risk her though with the gear changes, wide gate and first go at the Valley. DUBAI SKY (2) gets the blinkers first time and looked a needed addition after he ran around a little last time in the straight when making ground from the back. He may not have been in the best going either that day.
Race 3: BM70 Handicap 3000m
BENALL (1) is a last start winner in 78-grade and therefore gets the spike in the weights, but he gets the good claim. He will get back in the run so don’t worry about the wide gate, a little worrying that he has not placed in three previous runs at the track but if the speed is on in the big field, look for him late.
Dangers:
SAN REMO (3) will probably be the one setting the speed, they will be at opposite ends of the field in the run but they look the two. If he gets his own way in front, he should be able to run out the 3000m strongly enough. BRINGIT (2) is a winner here at the track previously, he looks better suited in this grade then when he was outclassed a HQ last time at Listed level. BLUE JAY WAY (5) doesn’t have a lot of dash but looks suited getting out to this trip and will keep grinding home.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1600m
DANE THUNDER (2) was only fair at Flemington when resuming off a 3-month break, he kept grinding home and looks better suited getting out to the mile again. He gets the good claim and has been consistent when racing second-up, maps to get a soft run in behind the speed and should finish well.
Dangers:
SABOTAGE (1) was brave in defeat at Flemington when forcing to sit wide around the very long home bend on the speed without cover. He has shown tactical speed in the past, the claiming jock will have to make a few early decisions. INTUERI (3) is an interesting runner travelling south for team Hawkes, he was well supported in a harder race last time but had some issues that were noted in the steward’s report. He hasn’t won in a while but the change in direction may give him a little spark. SACRED THEME (6) has run on well at his last couple, he was huge odds though in a similar race at Flemington last time and has never been here.
Race 5: BM78 Handicap 955m
CROWN WITNESS (3) is a former top juvenile that showed a stack of potential when winning her first three starts. She showed speed at start four in Group company before fading late and was sent to the paddock. She obviously had issues and was on the sidelines for more than a year, resumed with an ok effort at Sandown last time again at Listed level. She has speed and class, if she is ready to fire fresh, she looks too good for these.
Dangers:
These jump-and-run affairs can be lotteries, so if there is no money for her then the winner could come from anywhere. CONDOR HEROES (6) is an interesting runner that joins the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard from Sydney, he has shown ability and speed, but is having his first go here and unless the serious money comes for him, he looks a good lay. GOLDEN LUSTRE (8) wasn’t far away against the girls in one of these races last time and OLLIVANDER (9) can improve off a poor fresh run with the blinkers on.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1200m
TWITCHY FRANK (1) was a dominant winner in easier grade at Caulfield two back, she then went to Flemington and messed up the start before a good run in transit and solid run in harder grade. She maps beautifully in behind the leader’s here and will only need luck getting the run off the rails when they sprint.
Dangers:
ISLAND DAZE (4) was a brilliant last start winner all the way in an easier race last time, she was first-up after a six-month break and is a winner at her only other second-up run. MAGNESIUM ROSE (3) doesn’t have a lot of brilliance but will keep coming in the straight, just a matter of where she gets to from the wide gate. MOUNTAIN BREATH (5) is an interesting runner, she won her last two in the UK before making the trip to Australia to join the Waller yard. She will probably want further and will improve on whatever she does here. Dancing Tycoon looks a good risk at the short quote.
Race 7: BM70 Handicap 2040m
MOSH MUSIC (12) was a dominant winner resuming at 64-grade, she then when to Sandown and wasn’t suited the way the race was run but still ran on hard to narrowly miss. She gets out to the classic distance for the first time but it looks to really suit her the way she has attacked the line at the shorter trips.
Dangers:
MUSIC OF THE NIGHT (11) will roll forward and try to get cover just off the speed, she has been good at all runs this prep except for one which has proven to be a hot form race. COME ON CARL (7) will be up on the speed, he was a good winner over the mile two back before a brave effort in defeat last time at Sale after sitting wide without cover. INTO RIO (8) has looked better at his last couple when settling further back in the run, he will keep grinding away.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1200m
AGE OF CHIVALRY (9) looked under pressure early in the straight when headed out wide resuming last start, but he responded well to the urgings of the rider and kicked back to win well. He was first-up that day so should have taken a lot from that run.
Dangers:
It looks a very open race and if there is no money for him then the winner will be hard to find. LECTURE (10) is a speedy type resuming, she won her last two starts before going to the paddock. She looks suited around here and from the good draw will be hard to catch. GOOD THERAPY (5) may have bene the top selection but he is horribly drawn, he rattled home from well back last time in a role that isn’t his norm. Oliver will have some decisions to make early from the carpark draw. EXPANSION (7) is taking on the older horses for the first time, he ran on hard for a debut maiden win before narrowly going down when on the speed at start two. There has been a subsequent winner come from that race, the draw is also tough for him. Hard way to finish the card.