Moonee Valley Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 3 – NOTATION
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Race 1: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1200m
SMART ELISSIM (1) has had six weeks off and a good fresh-up, he looked a little flat at his latest run but drops a stack in class into this and gets in well with the claim. He was close up at Group Three level early in his campaign after winning his first two, he has the ability but really needs to show it at this level after failing to fire at his last couple in much harder races.
Dangers:
ADVANCING (7) worked overtime up on the speed but was still way too good to get his maiden win last time. He should have all the options off the good gate in attempting to lead or take the sit. MISCHA (4) maps well again and importantly is a winner here at the track last start where she bolted in at 64 level. Both her wins this time in have been super and she will be on the pace for a long way. BEHEMOTH (3) is an interesting runner over from SA after winning his maiden last time, he was well ridden in a solid performance where he wasn’t necessarily suited by the tempo.
Race 2: Super VOBIS 2YO Plate 1000m
No idea. Only three of the 12 have been to the races previously, the best of those efforts was probably OH SO REWARDING (2) who was at Listed level on Sandown Cup Day and was only beaten 3.75 lengths after not having much luck. He showed a nice turn-of-foot that day and will have taken plenty from that.
Dangers:
Look for any serious money for those on debut, including NAMIMO (11), COMPANY LINE (4) and CRYSTAL BEAU (5). Better to stay out and wait for more profitable situations (unless you know something)!
Race 3: 3YO Fillies BM70 Handicap 1200m
NOTATION (2) was a winner at her first two starts, she has excellent tactical speed and looks the leader. She went to Flemington on Cup Day and struggled to run out the strong 7 furlongs on the big track, different story here back to the 1200m around the Valley. Very hard to run down.
Dangers:
MY PENDANT (8) will start near the top of the market, she was a strong winner at Sandown when running on hard from mid-field last time. She had to work in that win, this is harder but she just looks a good risk from the draw at her first look at the Valley. SOLAR STAR (1) has won two on the bounce when leading throughout at 64 level, she probably ends up the leaders back here but there was a lot to like about her last start win here. OUR LONG SALI (4) has been good at both runs back, although missing a place at both she has run through the line hard.
Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1500m
This looks the most open race on the programme. HOSTAR (3) was a winner when resuming last start in this grade, he had to make a very wide run and although he was all out on the line, held on and did enough. He maps beautifully here from gate two, settles mid-field and looks a great each-way bet.
Dangers:
FIVE KINGDOM (1) is also a last start winner in this grade, he wasn’t entitled to though after getting badly held-up for more than a furlong early in the straight. He was strong through the line and that race has already produced a subsequent winner. TANTO BIANCO (2) has been up a while and is a little enigmatic, but at his best he will roll forward and lead or sit outside leader and prove hard to run down. LOUISVILLE LIP (5) is drawn poorly, he will get back as he was last time when winning at Kilmore. He was very strong through the line that day and was backed in from double figure odds.
Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1600m
SMART AS YOU THINK (1) will find this easier than her last start in the Kyneton Cup, she was disappointing that day when up on the speed but looks suited back against the girls. She will roll forward and hopefully can get up on the speed, her two runs prior to that were good.
Dangers:
SHOKORA (3) was all out at the back-end of the 1700m on Cup Day on the heavy track, she moved into the race nicely before peaking late so back to the mile looks ideal. She gets in very light with the claim. MINTHA (5) resumed at Group Three level at Sandown at their Cup Day, she is not really a fresh horse but has placed at 2/3 when second-up. SNOGGING (6) looks the other live chance she will get back and be ridden for luck.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1000m
FILL THE FLUTE (7) has the wide draw to contend with, she is not officially first-up but has had 8 weeks off. She races well when fresh, flies the gates and has the good claim and should be able to offset the bad barrier. She won all three earlier in this prep, this is a little harder but she has the speed.
Dangers:
EURACK (6) was undefeated through her first 4 career starts, went up the straight on the last day of the carnival and was poor, but was found to have excuses with mucus post-race. She looks better suited in this grade, look for any money late for her to suggest she has come through that run well. QUEEN ANNABEL (4) should get a lovely run in transit just off the leaders, she won fresh but a little worrying that she has not placed at either of her second-up runs. GREY SHADOW (3) has had a six-week let-up, she has been racing well this prep but did have every chance last time when seemingly a little disappointing. Happy to take her on.
Race 7: Handicap 1000m
THERMAL CURRENT (1) was a good winner on Oaks day, then went to Sandown and ran on late after not having much luck. He is a winner here previously, the last time he was here he also had no luck when warming up late in a race that didn’t favour those that were off the speed.
Dangers:
KEN’S DREAM (2) is resuming, he does his best racing early on in his preps. He will likely be giving them a start over this shorter trip but will run on hard. OUR LUCA (5) will be one of the leaders, his best chance will be whether he can get to the rails first. INVINCIBLE AL (4) is another that is likely to be giving them a start, just worrying that he is drawn out and he may be the horse giving our top selection a cart into it.
Race 8: BM90 Handicap 2040m
TOP PROSPECT (8) is a last start winner on the last day of the Flemington carnival, he SP’d in double figures and ran on hard along the rail. He doesn’t map as well here but should be rock hard fit now third-up, if he gets the right card into it he will run over the top of them.
Dangers:
AL GALAYEL (7) has been so consistent at all his seven runs this prep, he maps well and gets a few gear changes. A little worrying that he looked all out late last time, will need it soft on the speed to run out the classic Cox Plate trip. ONCIDIUM RULER (4) will be big odds, he has a very good record when second-up as he is today, has won at the track previously and will keep grinding home. OUR BIG MIKE (3) has only been in Australia for one start since coming over from NZ, a creditable placing in the Kyneton Cup and he will have taken plenty from that run. He certainly will run the trip, just a little worrying him having his first look at the Valley.
Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1200m
SIRIUS SUSPECT (5) has the advantage of being much better drawn than most of the dangers to him, he should position up just in behind the leader’s early and returns to an easier race than last time. On that occasion he had his chance up the straight when placing, he was diagnosed with thumps prior to that but was still too good, winning after a perfect ride at Sale.
Dangers:
DEMOLITION (3) would have gone on top but has the horror draw out in 16, he was too good at Caulfield after a wide trip, if he can get cover like he did there he may just be too good for them and he has placed at his only two runs at the track. LIKE TO THINK SO (2) has won two on the bounce in SA, he has tactical speed so if he can get to the spot outside the leader early off the wide gate, he will be hard to run down. PREZADO (7) has the ability, we know that, but there is two of him. He is still yet to win out of maiden grade but has run to within a length of Nature Strip!!