Ballarat Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m 600m-Winning Post. True the remainder.
Best Bet: Race 2 – ROX THE CASTLE
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Race 1: Mares BM78 Handicap 1200m
Like many of these, FREEHEARTED (2) comes back in grade after tackling a harder race over the Spring, she can be a little enigmatic but at her best she will be winning this. She is likely to be giving them a start but from the good gate she will get an economical run and finish powerfully. Back in trip looks to be the key with her.
Dangers:
SMART COUPE (5) charged clear late at Kyneton last start, this is her first go here but she looks to be hitting her peak now she is fit. CHATUCHAK (4) is resuming, not sure where she gets too in the run here but she is a winner fresh previously. The key to her will be f she gets cover. FAVONSKI (6) will be up on the speed off the good draw, she has won two of three this prep and may lead for a long way.
Race 2: BM70 Handicap 1100m
ROX THE CASTLE (7) came to Australia off a poor Kiwi debut, he won both starts last prep and is undefeated on our soil. She has a stack of speed, has been given a quiet trial leading into this and should lead for a long way. He looks to have a stack of potential.
Dangers:
I AM QUEEN (9) rarely runs a bad race, she will get back and may need to be ridden for luck off the inside draw. She will run on hard if the tempo is above average. I AM SOMEONE (6) will have plenty of supporters, he was unlucky at the Valley last time when held-up at a vital stage form the furlong pole. He probably should have almost won. He is a winner at his only other second-up run. NOTHING BUT A SAGA (8) comes into this off a nice last to first win at Kyneton in an easier race last time. This is harder and she will also need the speed on.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 2300m
OCEAN WALZER (3) is a winner, he has salute din four of his last five and maps beautifully again here today. He has shown that he can do it at both ends and is very versatile, two back he charged home from last before sitting closer last time and dashing to the front a long way from home. Back to the 2300m looks ideal and Brown should have him coming with one run.
Dangers:
HE EKSCELS (1) looks the leader, if he gets a couple of cheap sectionals in front, he will be hard to run down. He has been run down over shorter trips of late so stepping up in distance may not be ideal and he will need a soft lead. ROMANESQUE (4) should appreciate the extra trip here and will run on hard, he was just getting warm at the back end of the 2000m in the Kyneton Cup. THE GATTING BALL (6) is a last start winner across the border for Weir/Allen, this looks harder but if there is any give in the ground, he comes right into it.
Race 4: Magic Millions Clockwise 2YO 1000m
Obviously a tough race to assess, EXHILIRATES (7) has not only had the benefit of a race start but it was also running the clockwise direction in Sydney. She was only fair that day but had issues as noted in the steward’s report and gets the blinkers for the first time.
Dangers:
Watch for any big movers in the market, or better yet, wait for a better punting opportunity. Look for any money for FACT OR FABLE (8), NOT A ROYAL DOUBT (10) and ABSOLUTE FLIRT (5) who are all on debut.
Race 5: Ballarat V Gold Eureka Stockade 3YO 1400m
ENBIHAAR (1) should start one of the shortest priced favourites of the day and deservedly so. She was super at Flemington on the last day of the carnival, she hit the lead at the 100m mark before being swamped by a future star that has since come out and won again. If she gets cover, she will be finishing too hard for them and looks to have the class edge.
Dangers:
BIG NIGHT OUT (7) comes through that same race at Flemington and may have even been a better run given the fact that he had to sit wide throughout. He should get a more economical run here off the inside draw. DALSWINTON (3) may have turned the corner after finally getting his maiden win at start 6 last time, he maps well and will either lead or get a soft sit behind the leader. WINNING PARTNER (4) could not have been more impressive at his maiden win last time when resuming, he looks to have come back super and the way he ran through the line and away from those chasing last time suggest the 1400m should be right up his alley.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1600m
Where to look here in the huge field, it wouldn’t surprise to see the favourite at $7 or $8 in this. RYAN’S FENDER (11) is resuming, he was dominant two back to win his maiden by more than 5 lengths, was sent to the paddock and resumed for only the one run in the winter where he charged home to win on a bog track. He pulled up lame that day and was sent to the paddock again, look for any money for him fresh.
Dangers:
SILENT COMMAND (12) has the horrible draw and would have been the top pick had it not been for that, but no doubt Meech will drive him forward and try to lead or get the spot outside the leader. PURE SCOT (13) comes through a harder race on Oaks day, she was only fair that day and a little one paced but looks suited in this grade and back to the mile. INTO RIO (8) can run a place off a nice effort at Geelong last time, he will be giving them a start but ridden for luck and getting the gaps at the right time, he will run on hard.
Race 7: BM84 Handicap 1400m
LIKE TO THINK SO (7) has to overcome the visitor’s draw out in barrier 18, but he will go forward anyway so as long as Jamie Kah doesn’t have to use him too much early to get outside the leader, he should be hard to run past. He has shown that he can do work in his last two wins across the border, with that poor draw he should start well into double figures.
Dangers:
MR MONEY BAGS (9) resumed at Flemington on the last day of the carnival, he ran on strongly over an unsuitable short trip. Horribly draw also, they may have no choice but to go back. HAUNTED (8) is very consistent, he won two on the bounce to start this prep before having every chance at his last couple when placing. CHIPPENHAM (6) has run two nice races up on the speed since resuming, he will go forward and make his own luck on the pace.
Race 8: Ballarat Cup 2200m
ANOTHER COLDIE (3) is going for his third Cup in his last three runs, he bolted in at Horsham after a gem of a ride, then went to Kyneton for their Cup and ran on hard from mid-field, clearly the strongest through the line. He may need a little luck getting away from the rails when the runs come, he is going up another level again here and should handle it.
Dangers:
Forget that KIWIA (5) went around last week at Sandown, he was held-up badly on a couple of occasions when running on from the back in a race where that pattern wasn’t suited, he probably should have won the race. You would suggest that Allen would have had the choice of rides, it may be a lead that he is getting on him. LUVALUVA (7) was strong through the line at Flemington after travelling down from NSW, this looks no harder. LIFE LESS ORDINARY (1) is racing well, he wasn’t far off on Derby Day in the big Group One, then backed up on Cup Day and ran on hard. Look for one of the Weir runners, he is no stranger to winning these Cups!
Race 9: Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic 1100m
PLATINUM ANGEL (5) has not raced since early October when she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia in a much harder race. She is a back-marker so she will need everything to go her way, her first-up run at Group Three level was super charging home late from the back. We have to presume she has recovered from that last setback seven weeks ago.
Dangers:
AS IT LIES (6) was ok up the straight in a race no easier than this on the last day of the carnival. Her first-up win leading all the way was super, the official margin was 5 lengths. She looks better suited back around a bend. COLUMBIA (2) has won two on the bounce across the border in SA, one from the back and one on the speed. This yard must be respected when they bring one across. BEL SONIC (1) is resuming, he has a terrific record when racing fresh (4:2-1-1), he will get back and charge home.
Race 10: Handicap 1200m
CHAMOIS ROAD (2) had his chance at Sandown in a harder race than this last time, he has won at the track previously and although he was well beaten into 2nd at the Valley two starts back, he did chase hard and didn’t shirk the task.
Dangers:
There looks to be many chances. KEEN ARRAY (4) had been racing in some harder sprint races than this last campaign, he is drawn horribly but if he brings his best, he is right in this. MAN FROM UNCLE (10) was only a length and a half of Brave Song two back then didn’t handle the heavy track on Cup Day. JUNGLE EDGE (1) is clearly the class runner of the field, he gets a good claim but will be praying for rain. If that is likely he will be very heavily backed in this class. He will be the top selection if so.