Track: Soft 5. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 5 – TRAPEZE ARTIST
Race 1: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1500m
MANDYLION (1) is vey consistent and has placed at all three runs this time in. She leads here and with the rail in the true position that could be the place to be. She will be very hard to run down if she finds a comfortable lead.
Dangers:
PANDEMONIUM (2) will also be looking for that front-running position, but with the draw she may have to settle for sitting outside the speed. If they don’t attack each other in front and can control the tempo, they look the two. SEAGLASS (6) gets a soft run from the draw and will be running on hard if they do go at it up front, EUGENE’S PICK (8) next best, she has yet to miss a placing in her five-start career but draws poorly.
Race 2: Highway Class 3 Handicap 1200m
HIGHWAY SIXTYSIX (7) has a stack of minor gear changes here, her run last time in one of these was amazing with some great closing sectionals. She settled last, as she will probably do here from the poor draw, still more than 6 lengths back into the straight before weaving a passage between runners and running on hard to narrowly miss.
Dangers:
MY BLUE JEANS (4) comes through that same race, ran on well along the inside but not as well as the top pick. He maps a lot better though which should offset that. TERRITORIAL (8) should get the good run in transit, he has had his chances at two runs back this time in and should be at peak fitness now. RISK AND REWARD (11) has been good at the last two Highway races he has contested and will roll forward from the wide draw.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1400m
RENEWAL (5) meets the toppy 4kg better in the weights today, last time they met he got too far back when fresh and ran on well. He has the ability to be up on the speed and was aw inner second-up last campaign, expect that with the jokey change he will be going forward and be hard to run past in the straight.
Dangers:
DON’T GIVE A DAMN (1) was the winner of his last start in a harder grade but has to go from carrying 55.5 kg then to 64kg here! He is the real deal, but can he carry the grandstand? ANDAZ (12) comes up from Melbourne fresh, he is a winner first-up previously and will run on hard if the tempo suits. DRACHENFELS (2) travelled south at his latest, didn’t have much room late in the race and will find this easier.
Race 4: Stan Fox Stakes 3YO Set Weights 1500m
THE AUTUMN SUN (1) looks the real deal and will be the banker for plenty of this weekend’s sport/racing multis. I wouldn’t pit him as a moral now, wait until you see how the track is playing as he is likely to get well back, if that pattern is prevalent in the first few races then yes, expect him to be heavily backed and remain undefeated.
Dangers:
IRUKANDJI (3) has not won out of maiden grade but it shouldn’t be long. He was poorly away when resuming, was well back before making ground closer to the inside in a part of the track where that wasn’t easy to do. If he can get a horse in front of the fave turning for home and wide, he will be hard to get past ad gets in well at the set weights. He really looks the standout for Quinella punters and a great place bet. (Have something small to win as well if the fave is off). MASTER ASH (5) won the lead up to this after the perfect run in transit, gets that run again but would need big odds to entertain backing him to win again. DANAWI (6) won the Ming Dynasty here last start after leading all the way, may just have to work a little too hard from out there to get that spot in front.
Race 5: Theo Marks Stakes 1300m
Everest bound and pre-post favourite for that race TRAPEZE ARTIST (1) resumes here, admittedly this is not his Grand Final but they want to bet $3 about him winning this and $4.50 to win the Everest? I know which one looks over the odds! He has a great fresh record, no chance he will be underdone and will be straight up on the pace and winning this. He looks the good thing of the day.
Dangers:
D’ARGENTO (4) looks the obvious danger after another nice fresh run, this time behind Winx. He ran on well in the Hobartville last prep when second-up, just think that he will be giving the topweight too big of a start. If there is any on-pace bias at all early on he looks a great lay. HOME OF THE BRAVE (2) showed a stack of speed at his Australian debut, it was a great effort after travelling from Europe via the USA and then having 40 weeks off. SIEGE OF QUEBEC (8) next best, no doubt Gai will talk him up and say that he is up to this, but he can only run a place at best in my opinion.
Race 6: Run To The Rose 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
ZOUSAIN (1) went north for the winter, won fresh and then was beaten into second by the smallest of margins at his next two runs, at Group Two and group One level. He is resuming here and has trialed well against the older horses and looks ready to go. He is likely to be giving them a start, look for him late.
Dangers:
GRAFF (3) is undefeated at his three career starts, he may have been the top pick but from the draw he is likely to be behind Zousain early and I can’t see him running past him all things being equal. Very happy to risk him at the price if he is clearly at the top of the market. PERFORMER (4) comes through the same formline as Graff, he had no luck when planted off the track without cover last time. He stuck on well after the torrid run, he maps to get a much more economical trip here. SANDBAR (7) next best, a last start winner at Listed level, this is harder and he may have to sit wide.
Race 7: Sheraco Stakes Fillies and Mares 1200m
Too Hard! 9 of the 13 runners are resuming, previewing three days out with no idea how the track is playing and a fillies and mares race that throws up more questions than answers. Good luck for Quaddie players, hopefully you have some inside mail and got the first leg up one out! DAYSEE DOOM (1) will go forward from the wide draw and handles wet tracks. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL (4) has the fitness edge over her rivals with a second-up win up on the speed and is also at home on a rain-affected surface. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (6) will have plenty of admirers and has a terrific record fresh, she has trialed well and if the inside is the place to be she may just be too good for them. Throw in ZESTFUL (7) and RAIMENT (5) as other chances and cross your fingers as they jump.
Race 8: BM88 Handicap 1100m
SOOTHING (11) has a huge motor, she only had the one run last prep for an impressive win at 72 grade, was sent out for a 2 month hiatus and returned in devastating fashion at Randwick 5 weeks ago. He sat back, was slightly held-up before exploding through gaps underneath runners and put them away in a few strides, winning in the end by almost 5 lengths. If she is ridden cold like that again and gets the perfect cart into it, she will be winning.
Dangers:
SHE KNOWS (4) is very consistent, she has had her chances and has been running on well from good positions, but the draw is against her here. AKASAKI (1) goes well in the wet, has a good record fresh and was last seen in the Ramornie. If ridden for luck he can run into a place. SINGLE BULLET (9) has placed at both second-up runs, had no luck resuming and ran on well. The draw hurts though.
Race 9: BM78 Handicap
Where to look here in the last. Play very wide if playing the Quaddie. EAGLE BAY (2) has only been fair on paper at his two runs back from a spell but he has had excuses. Dropping in class here, if he gets the right cart into it he should be finishing hard.
Dangers:
ESTIKHRAAJ (4) was good in a similar race last time, he ran on hard between runners when the going may have been better out wide. LETTER TO JULIETTE (8) was also in that same race, she had her chance but draws to get a soft run again here. OPPOSITION (9) has a good second-up record, expect him to revert to the go-forward tactics here. Tough race to finish the day, hopefully you are in front before the last!