Flemington Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 14m entire circuit
Best Bet: Race 3 – AMPHITRITE
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Race 1: Mares BM78 Handicap 1800m
OUR LIBRETTO (8) has won two in a row since resuming and the step up in trip an extra furlong looks to suit. She did plenty wrong early last start but overcame those obstacles to score well and was really strong through the line at the back-end of a mile.
Dangers:
MOSCOW RED (6) is very consistent and has only missed a place at two of her twelve career runs, she has versatility in where she can map but I expect that she will roll forward from this gate. CORAL COAST (5) is second-up after a Queensland Oaks campaign, she may need one more run but she will certainly run the trip. She had excuses fresh in a race that didn’t suit her pattern and was held-up at a vital stage. MA JONES (1) rarely runs a bad race but she just looks to lack the brilliance and upside that some of these may have.
Race 2: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1000m
RAPIDORA (13) is still a maiden coming into this after being runner-up at both her career starts, she hot the line hard on debut before having no luck last time. She comes back in trip and is up the straight for the first time, that may enable her to settle a little closer. Look for her late.
Dangers:
LEVERAGED (8) was a dominant maiden winner last start at Mildura in what has been a good form reference, she showed speed and although she ran around a little in the straight, was dominant late. KING IRIS (9) is on debut but has shown enough in three public trials whilst FINAL CHOICE (6) showed a stack of speed to win on the synthetic last time, form lines rarely hold up when coming from that to grass though.
Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1420m
AMPHITRITE (12) could not have been more impressive resuming for her second prep, she had no right to lift herself off the canvas after copping trouble early in the straight before charging home and making it look easy on the line. She placed at her only other second-up run, the extra furlong and big track suits. She looks the best on the card.
Dangers:
THOUSAND WISHES (13) was super resuming up on the speed, if she can control the tempo she would be hard to beat but the big field may be against her. BIG NIGHT OUT (2) would have been close to the top selection after his promising debut win, but drawn out there at the 1400m here at Flemington usually means they are a pen job. PRISM (11) has many of the same qualities, a strong debut win but drawn horribly.
Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1420m
VINLAND (5) over-raced last time and the effort told late when the run peaked. This looks an open affair, if you go back to last prep when he was chasing around Winx and other stars his own age, he looks right in this.
Dangers:
REBELLIOUS LORD (3) looks ready to peak third-up, he has been a little one-paced at his fist two runs but should be at peak fitness here. WOULDA THOUGHT SO (8) is resuming off a two-month break, he has the poor draw but has trialed well. BAD WOLF (6) is also poorly drawn but ran on well fresh and will appreciate the extra trip.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1100m
HAUNTED (6) was good winning resuming, he had a nice run in transit and then was checked, balanced back up and charged through the line for a strong win. There have been two subsequent winners come out of that race and he has placed at his only second-up run.
Dangers:
BRAVO TANGO (5) has trialed well for his resumption here today, he has placed at both runs here up the straight and has won fresh. He is drawn out which may be the best going with the rail out so far. LIKE TO THINK SO (8) is resuming and very speedy, he has trialed well and is also drawn out. SAXOPHONE (9) is drawn out under the arches and will come down the outside rail, he has been up for a long time but his recent runs have been spaced. Look for him late.
Race 6: Oaks Trial 1800m
SIZZLEME (12) looks the leader, her win last start at Bendigo was unbelievable. She set the pace, kicked on the turn and never looked like losing. She was easy in the betting but with the rail out a mile here today, she will be very hard to catch.
Dangers:
FIERA VISTA (1) is drawn very wide, she also likes to race up on the speed and her chances will hinge on whether she can get across to the rails. I doubt she can work early and still be there at the back-end. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (5) is drawn out, comes down from a couple of good efforts north of the border but is likely to get further back here. Hard to line up his form but obviously has the ability. OREGON DREAMER (9) is only lightly raced lining up for start three, she bolted in to win her maiden last time after a perfect ride. She could have a stack of upside.
Race 7: Derby Trial 1800m
APPROACH DISCREET (2) was beaten as favourite last time out at the Valley, he was forced to work three-wide before getting up outside the leader and faded late. That was his first look thre and not all horses handle it, go on his crushing win across the border previously. Back on the big track today, he will look the winner at some stage up on the speed.
Dangers:
LEATHERHEAD (6) like most of these gets out in trip for the first time, he raced liked that should suit him when in that same race at the Valley as the top pick, he was given every chance but just kept grinding away and was strong enough through the line. MERCHANT OF VENICE (7) will obviously find this harder than his last two starts, he has run on hard from the back in both his wins and looks like he maps to get back again form the wide draw. FUN FACT (3) has been out to the trip before, is consistent but just a little concerning that he has been up such a long time.
Race 8: BM78 1630m
Looks an absolute dart job. PRIMITIVO (12) will probably start the favourite, he was a solid winner at very short odds north of the border but hard to line that up here up in class. DATA POINT (10) is poorly drawn but has been consistent this time in, he will be giving them a start from the draw but will keep grinding home in the straight. SPIDER (6) showed a stack of speed in his first start since coming across the ditch, he may lead for a long way. LAUGHING HEIR (3) is a last start winner and usually does his best work early in his preps. Play very wide in the Quaddies.