Flemington Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 9m entire circuit
Best Bet: WINX? Just kidding… Race 6 – EDUARDO (Each Way)
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Race 1: Maribyrnong Stakes 2YO 1000m
13 babies that are all on debut, many of them not seen at the official trials! What a way to start the day, sure it has been a starting point for many a good horse this race but as a betting proposition, better to take the Mrs out for brunch and get to the pub for Race 2! If you are going to have something for interest The McEvoy runners GRAND SCHOLAR (10), SUN CITY (6) and the ASTROLOGIST (7) are all sure to be well educated, as will be FANAAR (2) from the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard.
Race 2: Poseidon Stakes 3YO 1400m
YULONG JANUARY (5) is undefeated at his two career starts, both at Swan Hill and both crushing victories up on the speed. He got a little under the radar at start one but was heavily backed the second time around. He will roll forward and probably take up the lead or the spot outside the leader.
Dangers:
RANIER (4) has placed at all 4 career runs but comes into this a maiden still. He has had his chances and has been very costly to punters this campaign. He maps well and obviously has the ability, but can he find the post first? WILD PLANET (3) was first-up at Ballarat last start and broke his maiden status, he showed a stack of speed and was string through the line. The step up to the 7 furlongs shouldn’t be a factor. MORE THAN EXCEED (2) comes through the Written By race a fortnight ago, plenty of them that raced in that going around on Friday night to see how that will hold up as a form reference.
Race 3: Paris Lane Stakes 1400m
This looks one of the toughest races of the day with any one of the 10 capable of winning (ok maybe not Double Bluff at this stage. CRACK ME UP (1) has a great record second-up, he was working to the line nicely late when resuming and will improve stepping up to the 7 furlongs.
Dangers:
PLEIN CIEL (4) was well backed when travelling north for the Cameron last start, he never really got into the race and was well beaten. This looks easier and although it is his first look at the track, he should appreciate the long straight with his pattern. I’M WESLEY (3) wasn’t beaten far up the straight here last time in a race harder than this and SIR JOHN LAVERY (7) is an interesting runner having his first Australian start for the Lloyd Williams team. Watch the money with him.
Race 4: UCI Stakes 3YO 1800m
The draw has made this race really interesting, most of the favoured runners are drawn out very wide and tactics will be crucial in success here. THUNDERDOME (6) is drawn 12 but will use his natural early speed to carve across early and try and lead all the way. He stuck on well at Caulfield after taking up that role last time over the mile. The extra trip is new to him and a little concern, a few cheap sectionals through the middle will assist.
Dangers:
SAVOIE (5) is also drawn out and will go forward but may have to sit outside the top pick, EXTRA BRUT (2) has won his last couple but gets the widest draw, surely they have to go back with him and ride for luck. He looks to have plenty of upside though. APPROACHDISCREET (4) is drawn 16, he had every chance behind Savoie last time, was easy in the betting and hard to see him turning the tables off that run.
Race 5: Turnbull Stakes 2000m
Well it’s the last time we will see her at Flemington, the best horse we have ever seen at the best track in the world, what a combination. WINX (2) will be winning this, we all know about her so sit back and enjoy! If you must have a trifecta or first-four, throw in GRUNT (1), KINGS WILL DREAM (4) and YOUNGSTAR (10).
Race 6: Gilgai Stakes 1200m
EDUARDO (10) is only lightly raced but wow what a talent. He brained them at his first two starts, then had 11 weeks off before resuming at Caulfield. He led them and ran along, was only nabbed late in what was a huge effort given the early sectionals. The other on pacers have still not finished from that race, he is a star.
Dangers:
I AM EXCITED (11) had no luck at Caulfield second-up, she has placed up the straight here before and the outside gate could be a blessing. BONS AWAY (9) comes through the same race as the top pick, his closing sectionals were fantastic. FIRST AMONG EQUALS (7) is a winner here previously, he is drawn in which may be a disadvantage. He was good in the Bobby Lewis, albeit having every chance.
Race 7: The Bart Cummings 2500m
AVILIUS (1) has won all three races since coming to Australia, all three of them in Sydney and all three with a devastating turn-of-foot from the back. He is single figures in the Caulfield Cup market, none of those rated shorter than him in that are entered here and Flemington should be ideal for his pattern. Expect him to rocket to favourtism for the Caulfield Cup after he wins here!
Dangers:
OUR VENICE BEACH (2) has only had the two runs in Australia. He doesn’t seem to have a lot of brilliance and will keep grinding away. RISING RED (6) surprised many by running a huge race in the Naturalism at big odds, he rarely runs a bad race. JAAMEH (9) is at his perfect distance range, he will be running on and will probably need to get the back of the favourite when they make their runs.
Race 8: Edward Manifold Stakes 3YO Fillies 1600m
Many of these are on a path to Oaks glory, AMPHITRITE (5) is one of those and although she is untried out past the 7 furlongs, the mile here certainly looks ideal. She was devastating at her first look here 10 days ago, she was easy in the betting and got back, charging late for a soft win in the end.
Dangers:
KRONE (2) and TAHITIAN DANCER (3) were both good in the Jim Moloney at Caulfield last time, they are both drawn out but expect that one of them will roll forward. Whichever of these two is ridden more positively should be the main danger. DARK CONFIDANT (9) is a last start maiden winner that ran on hard over 1400m. She looks to be improving at each run and no doubt this team will have a plan for her. She could be the knockout hope.
Race 9: Blazer Stakes Mares 1400m
Followers of this column may be getting tired of me saying this, but again we are facing a tough ask to get-out with the impossibly hard mares race of the day last on the card, if we are alive in the Quaddie we have to find the winner of this to try and collect! INVINCIBELLA (3) was good resuming before having no luck last time, BELLA MARTINI (5) will go forward at the start, SAVATIANO (9) had every chance at Newcastle last time but there was a good margin to third and TULIP (6) is a last start winner against the girls. Plenty more chances as well. Play wide as always in these type of races!