Flemington Racing Tips
Best Bet: Race 7 – REAL SUCCESS
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Race 1: Maribyrnong Plate 2YO 1000m
Obviously a stack of unknowns here with only four of the babies having been to the races previously. Look for any money from the first-starters, this race usually unveils a few future stars. In particular, monitor VINICUNCA (9) from the powerful Waterhouse/Bott stable, ART COLLECTION (7) from the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard and CHICAGO BULL (5) for Peter Gelagotis. Of the raced brigade, the best chance looks to be WEDGETAIL (1) who was good on debut then had no luck at the Valley. There will be some wayward ones here late no doubt.
Race 2: 3&4YO Fillies and Mares BM70 1700m
As is typical with these races for the girls over the carnival with huge fields if you find the winner it may be enough to keep you in front for the whole day! GLOBAL SANCTION (10) dead-heated last start after running on well in an easier race, all three of her runs this time in have been good and she will sprint well when asked at the top of the straight.
Dangers:
Hard to not put WILD SEA (11) as the next tip as she was the horse that shared the majority of the prizemoney with the top selection last start when the judge couldn’t split them. She probably should have got past and won had she not run around late but the draw hurts. PALMATEER (6) comes down from Sydney with a good form, a little concern she has been up for so long and has the wide gate, but she will be running on hard. PURE SCOT (3) maps well and will go forward and should be making her own luck, her win fresh was good and she is a winner second-up previously.
Race 3: BM90 Handicap 1800m
It doesn’t get much easier here. ASTORIA (4) was good in Sydney last start, he had only been fair in the lead-up to that at two subsequent runs but does get the blinkers back on again here.
Dangers:
SAVACOOL (7) is also a visitor from up north, she chased hard at Randwick last time and was closing all the time. She drops in trip which could be ideal, look for her late. LEGALE (13) will go forward and be prominent, dropping back a furlong in trip looks ideal for him. TAKE IT INTERN (2) is an import that has had two starts in Oz, he should be nearing peak fitness now but may be wide throughout.
Race 4: Greys BM90 Handicap 1400m
ANDAZ (6) comes to this after a couple of good placings in Sydney. This time last year he was racing in the Coolmore and backed up on the last day of the carnival. Back against the greys here, expect him to be well backed.
Dangers:
HARBOUR GREY (3) wasn’t beaten far in this race last year, he races well at the track. He was super on Geelong Cup Day when resuming, has won second-up and maps well. STRATOCASTER (2) is an interesting runner that comes across the ditch from NZ with a good record, he will handle the sting out of the ground also if the rain comes. POWERLINE (1) stays under notice, as does any horse when Kris Lees sends them south, he ran on hard from an impossible position last time at Randwick. Look for him late.
Race 5: Country Cup BM80 1600m
SUPERHARD (1) has won three of his last four, he was held-up two back before rocketing home to win then was beautifully ridden at Bendigo last time to score convincingly. He will need to be well ridden to get cover from the wider draw, but with a cart into he should be hitting the lead at the clocktower and hanging on.
Dangers:
TRULY DISCREET (4) was dominant winning at Geelong on Cup Day, she will be up on the speed for a long way and has come through some handy form lines recently. LADY CROMAC (9) was ok at Listed level last time after a wide run, although well beaten she looks better suited back in this grade. AKKADIAN (7) ran on hard at Bendigo behind the top pick but once again will be giving them a start, likely to get well back from the wide draw.
Race 6: Absolut Stakes 1000m
SUPER CASH (3) is resuming off a Qld Winter campaign, she was super in both the Stradbroke and Tatts Tiara placing in both, she was off the track in both of them and drops a stack in class here. Her record fresh is superb (7:5-0-1) and is drawn out which will be no disadvantage up the straight at this time of the carnival.
Dangers:
KAEPERNICK (4) is also first-up today, he was only beaten a length by two-time Everest winner Redzel last time he raced. He is drawn very wide but that might be the spot to be. BANDIPUR (11) will be a big price but loves it up the straight here. He has been off the scene for 6 weeks but has been sharpened up with a trial a fortnight ago. VIRIDINE (2) was blown away by the speed of nature Strip last start but was winding up ok late and ran through the line well. He has had two months off and has won 2/4 when fresh.
Race 7: TCL TV Stakes 3YO 1800m
REAL SUCCESS (3) drops a stack in grade back from the Vase at The Valley, he was well beaten but did show a nice turn-of-foot before tiring. He was good against his own age previously and maps well with the winkers on first time.
Dangers:
ALESSANDRO (5) is only lightly raced, he has won two from four and comes back in trip. She won over 1400m on debut so back a furlong shouldn’t worry him, look for him late. JUNIPAL (6) is having his sixth race start in his first racing campaign which is a little concerning, but he is very consistent. He gets out to the 1800m for the first time and looks a good risk if he starts under each-way odds. PREDECESSOR (7) gets the soft rails run, he may need a little luck getting off the inside when the runs come as he will get back. He wasn’t beaten far behind the top selection last time.
Race 8: Kennedy Oaks 3YO Fillies 2500m
I am willing to forgive VERRY ELLEEGANT (4) her seemingly poor run on Saturday, what looked a poor ride (and it was) and an average performance from a short priced favourite (and it was), had aa few positives to take out of it. She never settled and was wide throughout, two things that jockey John Allen will have to address but she worked to the line well recording the best last 600mand 400m in the race. The increased odds we now get after her “flop” on the weekend are just the cherry on top, she should be making amends here.
Dangers:
AMPHITRITE (1) comes through a different formline and didn’t contest the Wakeful. She had no luck in the mile race here Saturday and was looking for runs all the way up the straight. She had won four in a row this prep including a win over the top selection before that luckless run on Saturday. QAFILA (3) had a quiet run in transit and was held-up for the majority of the straight before working to the line well late in the Wakeful. The extra distance suits and she should be closing out wide this time. ARISTIA (2) was perfectly ridden to win the Wakeful on Saturday, she maps well again and has to be a chance.
Race 9: Red Roses Stakes 3YO Fillies 1100m
PROPELLE (8) resumed with a win at the Valley last time out, she ran on well from well back there and was a winner at her only other second-up start. She came up the straight at her third career start as a 2YO and showed a stack of speed but was lame so we can forgive her that run.
Dangers:
HUMMA HUMMA (3) has still yet to win out of maiden grade but she has not missed a place in all 7 career starts. She draws out and should get cover, they will be coming down the outside by now surely. MERYL (1) won at Group Three level at the Valley two back when up on the speed, then went to Caulfield and wasn’t beaten far behind Sunlight, she has come out on Saturday and killed the boys here in a much harder race. VOILA (10) has good tactical speed but they rode her with cover successfully last time. Drawn out at her first go up the straight, look for her to be up on the speed for a long way.