Flemington Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 1 – RANIER
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Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes 3YO SW+P 1600m
RANIER (5) was the best of good things beaten two back here when Bowman failed to get to the outside and was held-up most of the straight. He made amends at Caulfield a fortnight ago, coming wide on the turn and running on well to get up late. That was his maiden win and he will take confidence from that, look for him late.
Dangers:
YULONG JANUARY (8) would have been at the top of selections had it not been for the horror draw. He was good at Caulfield, led and was tormented by a riderless horse all the way down the straight, hard to say if he would have won or not but he certainly was good. He will go forward but will need to get outside the leader cheaply. WILD PLANET (6) comes through that same race and was wide throughout whilst QUACKERJACK (4) stays under notice coming down south after a last start victory in Sydney. He will also go forward from the wide gate so the speed should be genuine.
Race 2: Wakeful Stakes 3YO Fillies 2000m
VERRY ELLEEGANT (2) stormed to the top of the Oaks betting after her slashing win at Caulfield a fortnight ago, she ran on hard and although this is not her GF, she should be wound up for this after a fortnight off.
Dangers:
EL DORADO DREAMING (1) was good at the Valley behind a smart one, she might just be peaking in time for next Thursday and the extra distance shouldn’t hurt her. She won’t be far off them in the run. ARISTIA (4) was good but beaten on her merits at Caulfield by the top selection, if she is to go one better she will need to pinch a break early in the straight. SIZZLEME (5) was the other placegetter out of that race which looks the right form line.
Race 3: The TAB Stakes Handicap 1200m
The first of the straight races for the week and with the rail in the true expect that they won’t go to the outside at this stage. OSBORNE BULLS (1) was good in defeat in the Everest, Tommy Berry rolled the dice and came to the outside fence and it is hard to say if that worked in getting him so close or not? Either way he was very good, like the jockey change with Bowman going on.
Dangers:
BONS AWAY (7) has been good at all three starts this campaign, he will be giving them a start but if he gets the back of the right horse, watch for him to explode late. WINTER BRIDE (8) is a winner, this is her first go up the straight but she has won four in a row including two this prep, she has to be respected. RUNSON (10) is backing up from the Valley last week where she led all the way. A different kettle of fish today up the straight and coming off a track that was favourable to the on pacers. His margin was large but happy to oppose him if he is in single figures.
Race 4: Lexus Stakes 2500m
A lot on the line here for these stayers, loved the run of A PRINCE OF ARRAN (2) in the Herbert Power. He didn’t quicken like the winner and Melbourne Cup favourite that day but showed that the extra trip is going to benefit him and he will keep on coming. He won second-up last campaign and should be fitter for that first run in Oz.
Dangers:
PATRICK ERIN (3) was scratched from the Bendigo Cup in favour of this which indicates Waller may fancy his chances with the Gallant Guru gelding. His Metropolitan win was good after having a chequered passage, the trip shouldn’t be an issue. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (7) was ok in the Caulfield Cup, he kept working to the line well in a race that didn’t suit those that were back in the field like he was. JAAMEH (10) will start near the top of the market but I would like to oppose him, he looked to have every chance in The Bart Cummings here a month ago but was beaten on his merits. He can certainly win but under each-way odds is poison.
Race 5: Coolmore Stud Stakes 3YO 1200m
SUNLIGHT (10) had no luck in the Manikato at the Valley last week, it seems the same comment could be made about half the field. She has brilliant tactical speed, she never got clear and was held-up at a vital stage. If she can get cover here behind the leader, depending on where they come up the straight, she will have a strong burst of speed to offer at the clock tower.
Dangers:
DIPLOMATICO (8) looks to have plenty of upside but clearly faces his toughest test. The Hawkes team wouldn’t be throwing him in here for nothing, his win was huge in Sydney last start after overcoming several hurdles in the run. WRITTEN BY (1) has done nothing wrong and comes up the straight for the first time. His only defeat to date was in the Golden Slipper, has showed speed to lead all the way at both starts this time in. Expect that he will be a big drifter in the market as he may be just a Caulfield horse. Well that’s what plenty of people have penned him anyway, so if you are going to back I would suggest you wait until very late when he should be at his peak price. ZOUSAIN (2) hasn’t been seen in six weeks since his nice effort in the Golden Rose. He hit the front too early that day and was overhauled by the freakish The Autumn Sun.
Race 6: Empire Rose Stakes Fillies and Mares WFA 1600m
Look to see how the track is playing, it could be very quick along the rail back in the true and may be favouring the on-pacers. If so, I AM A STAR (1) looks a great each-way bet. She should be able to lead here from the good gate and if she kicks at the top of the straight, although there are some strong ladies chasing her, she will keep digging in.
Dangers:
AMPHITRITE (15) came into oaks calculations after her brilliant Thousand guineas win, she finished way too hard and despite the fact the margin wasn’t huge, she was laying in all the way up the straight. Look for her late. OOHOOD (13) finally got the maiden tag off her back two back, ran on nicely into a place in the Caulfield Guineas although never looked likely. That form line may prove very, very, good though. SHUMOOKH (9) will also go forward, she was brilliant leading all the way at Caulfield but doubt she gets the soft lead here, if she gets the lead at all.
Race 7: AAMI Victoria Derby 3YO 2500m
EXTRA BRUT (3) raced more like a stayer than a middle-distance type last time, but that may have just been Weir prepping him for this, the grand final. He was mid-field at Caulfield in the lead-up before making a long run but was only one paced. He looks suited getting out to the trip and will have to go back from the wide draw, but expect him to be running out strong.
Dangers:
THINKIN’ BIG (1) was the winner of that race at Caulfield when leading all the way, he did get it easy in front and may be found wanting on the bigger track late if softened up through the middle stages. ARAMAYO (2) is on the quick back-up from the Vase at the Valley, he was beaten as favourite last week after a super run in the Spring Champion previously, but can bounce back today. whilst VISAO (8) looks to add some value to the exotics, he was only fair and a little one-paced at Caulfield but there was a lot to like about his win here back in July.
Race 8: Kennedy Mile 1600m
Admittedly, HARTNELL (1) doesn’t do his best racing here but gee he is still going well. He meets the winner 2.5kg better from last start, gets Bowman going on riding in great form and if he can get him one off a pair or two back, he will keep coming in the straight. He isn’t as brilliant as he once was, but he won’t give up the chase.
Dangers:
LAND OF PLENTY (4) did get the better of him last time and was heavily backed, he will most likely have the back of Hartnell at some stage and does have a brilliant turn-of-foot. If he can be saved for one run, he is the one to beat again. LE ROMAIN (2) was ok in the Everest but had every chance up on the speed, he is likely to go forward and be on the speed. CLIFF’S EDGE (11) will also go forward, on the quick back-up from the Valley where he was favoured the way the track played, but he was not entitled to put them away like he did after sitting in the breeze. This is a different level here though.
Race 9: Begonia Belle Stakes Mares 1100m
An open race as you would expect with the girls going around in the last, FROM WITHIN (7) has won four in a row this campaign, she is having her first go up the straight which is a little concerning but she has the right barrier and will be the leader for a long way. Watch to see if she is well backed early in the day.
Dangers:
RESIN (6) looks the best of the Godolphin runners, she rarely runs a bad race but interestingly one of her only two failures when not running a place was up the straight here. She will be giving them a start, look for her late. I AM EXCITED (4) won the Gilgai here last time, coming back in trip by 100m is a little concern as she will be giving them a start, but if they go crazy, she will be finishing best. SNITTY KITTY (2) just found them too speedy last time in the Schillaci, from the wide draw they may try something and head to the outside fence?