Flemington Racing Tips
Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 6 – DECLARES WAR
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Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Plate 1100m
YES YES YES (4) was solid on debut at the Valley, he over-raced a little early and chased hard from the back and made up good ground. This looks no harder and obviously it is a test having his first go up the straight but with that race experience, he looks hard to beat.
Dangers:
OH SO REWARDING (1) comes through that same race at the Valley, he showed good speed to lead and was run down over the last 50m. He will need to lift to run out the strong 1100m up the straight here. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular SPIRIT IN THE SKY (2) and MOVIE ROLE (8)
Race 2: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1410m
REALLY SWISH (14) did take 10 starts to break his maiden status but he may have turned the corner and got some much-needed confidence with the win. He sat mid-field before running on hard at Sandown, may have hit the lead too early but showed grit to hold on for a narrow win. He is drawn well which is key to winning here at the 1400m.
Dangers:
SOCIAL SPIN (1) was solid enough when resuming behind a smart winner at the Valley a fortnight ago, he has placed at his only other second-up run and will be up on the speed. If he can get the spot outside the leader cheaply and control the race, he will be hard to run down. BEZOS (3) looks the leader form the good draw, he has won his last two in style from in front and will be hard to catch. KAPLUMICH (5) will be wide early, he will need to get cover when going forward but he is very consistent.
Race 3: BM84 Handicap 1720m
ETYMOLOGY (4) has been in Sydney for his last two starts, the first of which he had no luck before running on late over the last furlong and then looked to have every chance last time but seemingly didn’t run out the 2000m. Back in trip today at a track where he has placed at three of four runs, he looks hard to beat.
Dangers:
MASCULINO (2) has two duck eggs next to his name in the form guide, forget that as they were in much harder races than this. He comes through the Kilmore Cup last start where he was running on ok before not having much room over the concluding stages. This is easier. BOXACHOCOLATES (7) has yet to win this campaign but his last start effort was full of merit. He was forced to sit wide without cover throughout and was beaten less than a length. Everything was against KENTUCKY BREEZE (8) at Ballarat three weeks ago but he was still too good after sitting wide without cover. This is a little harder but he draws to get an economical run.
Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1200m
VIA BALCIANO (4) was well beaten last start at Ballarat when resuming, but he had a stack of excuses. He jumped awkwardly and made contact with the barriers leaving him last early, he chased hard but never got into in a race where the tempo was against him. He has obviously come through that ok and gets the blinkers for the first time. Expect him to settle closer here with a clean getaway.
Dangers:
WEAPON (10) is having his first look up the straight six here at Flemington, he was a dominant winner when fresh last campaign and was tackling harder races than this at the back-end. Look for any money for him resuming. CASH AFFAIR (16) is drawn down closer to the rails, that is where it is expected that they will come and is consistent. He will be giving them a start so may need a little luck. DEVIL’S RAIN (11) bolted in on debut at Pakenham last start, this is harder but it was a real professional win and should be able to step up to this class.
Race 5: Handicap 1410m
ULMANN (2) has been out of the winner’s stall for a long time but gets a winnable race here. The blinkers go on again which sets the alarm bells automatically, although he has an eight and a nine next to his last two starts, the runs were ok. He has shown he is versatile but from the good gate with the blinkers on, I would be surprised if he is not on the speed.
Dangers:
KING’S COMMAND (7) also gets the blinkers back on, he isn’t officially resuming but he has had seven weeks off and has a tremendous record fresh. He will charge home late from the back. MURAAHIB (10) looks to map beautifully n paper and should have the cold sit on the leaders whilst WENNER (8) is drawn poorly but the smaller field should suit.
Race 6: 3&4YO BM70 Handicap 1720m
DECLARES WAR (9) placed at his first two career runs, ran on hard to win his maiden at Sandown then had no luck when stepping out of that grade last time but was still good enough to win at the Valley. He was held-up at a vital stage before charging home late. He looks to have a stack of potential and looks a real winner. Up in trip looks to suit and he looks the best of the day.
Dangers:
SUPRE (10) beat the 3YO girls last time out, although the margin wasn’t huge, she was strong through the line and should appreciate getting out in trip. HOSTAR (7) ran on well at the Valley last time from a mile back after coming wide, dropping back in trip looks ideal and should be fully fit here third-up. RYAN’S FENDER (4) didn’t really run out the mile last start which is a little concerning, but that has proven to be a good form reference. If he can get cover on the speed and be saved for one short, sharp burst late, he can place.
Race 7: Handicap 1100m
ROCKET TOMMY (8) has good tactical speed, although he hasn’t been racing great, he absolutely loves it here. His last start on the track he was strong through the line winning over 1000m, gets the blinkers back on today and should look the winner up on the pace at a big price.
Dangers:
INVINCIBLE AL (9) usually races well up the straight as well, he is very consistent but he usually needs everything to go right. He will get back and run on hard late. HOLBEIN (10) was good on Melbourne Cup day here when backed at big odds, he gets the blinkers on the near side for the first time. NATIVE SOLDIER (6) draws wide, look for the pattern in the earlier straight races to see if it is an advantage as they may be coming to the outside by this stage? Flogged by Autumn Sun when last seen (but who wasn’t?), he was very good against his own age group during that prep.
Race 8: BM78 Handicap 2540m
Tough race! GOODWOOD ZODIAC (3) has been a little enigmatic at three runs from a spell but with the big field he will be making his own luck out in front. Always tough in the staying races to lead all the way up this big straight, but from the good gate with Zahra going on, he will be hard to catch.
Dangers:
MAZAZ (2) comes through the same form-line and was the winner of that race in Sydney last time that our top selection was in, he was beautifully ridden, maps well again but he does meet him 2.5 kgs worse today. PLEASURING (1) has yet to win this campaign but has been very consistent, she needs to settle better as he is very one paced. THE GATTING BALL (6) will get back and run on hard.
Race 9: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1100m
I AM QUEEN (13) was a dominant winner when resuming off a two-month break last time. She has not been up the straight before which is a little concerning but with the rail out the inside gate should be an advantage and they will probably be hard up against the inside.
Dangers:
TWITCHY FRANK (12) is also drawn down low, she is a winner here previously which is a positive. At the Bool last time she jumped well before drifting back and charged home late for a dominant win. A repeat of that run sees her right in this. REGIMEN (10) has been doing all his racing in Sydney this prep, he may have run his race at the barriers last time after being vetted. ESSENCE OF TERROR (1) gets the good weight relief, she has good speed and her form at the Valley the last couple of months has been super.