Track: Good 4. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 5 – ALMONZARA
Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1150m
ALTAIR (1) has had the four trips to the races without success, he was good resuming from the back in a race where the tempo didn’t suit that pattern, then was outclassed going to Group Three level last start. Back in maiden lass with the small field, if he settles better he looks one of the better bets of the card.
Dangers:
Waller looks to hold the key here and there is usually no lead in the betting with his stable. TOUGH LARRY (3) is a debutant of his that has trialed well going into this and the third stablemate engaged, VOILA (7) is resuming, she was super on debut before having no luck at her second start. WATCHING (4) next best off the inside draw.
Race 2: 3YO Maiden Handicap 1400m
KOLDING (11) comes off a debut run at Kembla where he had no luck and was pratted three-wide without cover for the trip. He loomed up to them but weakened late understandably and there has already been a subsequent winner come out of that race. With cover here he can be right in the finish.
Dangers:
MATOWI (5) did plenty wrong last time but was only narrowly beaten, expect that he will get further back here but saved for one run he should have plenty to offer late. EXCELTIC (1) drops a stack in class from black type racing to this, he should mid-field and handy and should be fully fit. BRILLIANT CHOICE (4) has placed at both runs, he will roll forward and his chances will increase if able to find the front or control from the breeze.
Race 3: 3YO Fillies BM66 Handicap 1150m
LABURNUM (2) will find this much easier than the Silver Shadow that she contested last time, she was entitled to run on a bit better in that, but this is a different class. She had placed at all three runs this campaign previously and she should settle closer here, maybe a pair or two back on the outside.
Dangers:
GENTLE PERSUASION (3) was a good winner on debut where she ran on hard form the back, changed the tactics up last time in a harder race and went forward and was narrowly beaten. She looks well in back against her own sex here. MRS RODARTE (1) was sent out after an unexpected win on debut at bog odds, she has been trialing very quietly in preparation for this. BANDOL (6) won on debut and led all the way, tactics we usually see adopted form this stable and will do again no doubt. See how the track is playing in the first two races.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 2400m
CORMAC (1) has a few minor issues, mainly that he has been up for a long time and is now getting up in the weights, but the authority with which he won at the farm last time in a similar race was hard to ignore. He has the ability to race forward or back but expect that from the good draw he won’t be far off the speed.
Dangers:
MORE MOET (3) was soundly beaten by the top selection last time, but he had a horrid run in transit and was wide without cover throughout. He gets a much better draw and will only need some luck getting off the fence at the right time. NIGHT BREAK (6) was poor at his first go out of maiden grade but was wide without cover, sat up on the speed and tired behind the race many of these contested last time. CHAIN OF FOOLS (7) is better than what she has shown this prep and it looks a positive jockey change.
Race 5: BM74 Handicap 1000m
ALMONZARA (3) had no luck when resuming when severely checked at a vital stage, went to Randwick last time in a harder race and ran on hard to win. He was off the scene for more than a year, expect her to be heavily backed in this and anything in the black looks good value.
Dangers:
TORPENHOW (2) is a stablemate to the top pick, he is likely to be ridden for luck off the inside gate and fresh. He will get back but if the runs come he will finish hard. PUPPET MASTER (1) will go forward and try to lead all the way, he can throw in a howler every now and then, but he is better than his last start suggests. LITTLE RED SHOES (7) has won three in a row since resuming, all of them sitting wide also. She draws better here and should get cover, has to be a good place bet.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM72 Handicap 1300m
ANTELOPE (6) is resuming of the good draw here, she was a winner at her first two starts before going to the paddock. She resumed at Warwick Farm in a harder race than this and made some ground in a race where that wasn’t the favoured pattern. Resuming today, expect that she is ready to fire fresh after two trials.
Dangers:
TINY TAJ (4) would have been the on top selection had it not been for the wide gate, she will probably be last early and hard to know how the track will be playing in respect to get-back horses. AEECEE TONG DE (9) has had six goes out of maiden grade and still yet to crack it for a win, she looks the leader and will be hard to run down if the track is favouring that pattern of racing. LADY I AM (10) next best, she will get back but should be finishing powerfully.
Race 7: BM76 Handicap 1550m
PALMATEER (14) has been up for a long while but is racing consistently. She was well eaten last time against the girls, but she got back, was slightly held-up before getting back to the inside which was clearly not the best part of the track.
Dangers:
BELLA SUCCESS (11) was well beaten by All Too Soon last time, she was touted as a future star prior to getting beaten on Saturday but she had excuses. She has been consistent and will run on from the back. IMPULSIVE (6) was ridden further forward last time and saluted, expect her to do the same with a couple of her stablemates likely to appreciate a solid tempo up front. DISTURBANCE (2) didn’t look to handle the very heavy track last time, his first run since coming from NZ was good and should appreciate the better track surface today.
Race 8: CG&E BM76 Handicap 1300m
It could almost be a field job in the last of the day and there could be some big Quaddie divvies coming out of this. STAR OF THE SEAS (8) has done nothing wrong, both wins since resuming have been solid enough when up on the speed, he shouldn’t be far away in the run again here. ABSOLUTE (6) is poorly drawn but is down in class, they may just ride her aggressively without fear from out there. ORIENTAL RUNNER (1) returns from a much harder race, he was only beaten 5.4 lengths by the great mare Winx last time and will go forward. TIP TOP (3) next best but will get back, play very wide!