Ballarat Racing Tips
Track: Soft 6. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 1 – AKKADIAN
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Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m
AKKADIAN (1) is an interesting runner, he has only run a placing at one of his seven career starts but his last three starts have been at Group Two, Group Three and Group One level. Three starts back at Flemington in the Sires he was unlucky not to win after being held-up at a vital stage, if they roll the dice and send him forward early he may just be too classy.
Dangers:
Obviously a stack of unknowns with those on debut or resuming. RELETTE (10) has trialed well on the heavy ground recently, STARVIGO (8) showed talent when last in work and obviously any money for the Weir runners stepping out for the first time must be respected, especially JUNIPAL (5) who draws the inside and is a recent trial winner.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m
LONGCLAW (11) has placed at both of his starts, the son of Fastnet Rock has settled mid-field and ran through the line well on both occasions. The mile looks right up his alley and should have improved again off that second run. Look for him late.
Dangers:
REPOSITION (7) has had three runs, the two where he went back he has run on well. From this draw expect that to be his pattern, gets the blinkers for the first time. REGAL HAWK (6) comes through that same race but was very plain, we can just put that down to the second career start syndrome and he should get a really good run from the draw. ELGIN (2) is an interesting runner, a 4YO on debut for the Lloyd Williams team. A big watch on the betting late to see if the money comes from the track with him.
Race 3: Maiden Plate 1400m
SUBRAISE (13) looks suited getting out to the 7 furlongs, he has worked home beautifully at his first two starts and as with most Weir runners, third-up he should be hitting his straps. Maps to be mid-field, look for him late.
Dangers:
BILL THE BEE (9) was ok on debut, he was in trouble soon after the start but ran through the line well enough although well beaten. He resumes here and is sure to have improved at his time off. HIPPYHAZE (1) was ok on debut, he looks like he still has a bit to learn but hit the line ok and the extra furlong suits. COSMIC CITY (10) looks an interesting runner from the Busuttin/Young stable.
Race 4: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1000m
LA POMME DE PIN (1) is an interesting runner, he was a dominant maiden winner in the reverse direction race at Ballarat, went north and went too quickly. Resuming last time, she led again in a much harder race, the small field suits and expect her to lead all the way.
Dangers:
SKIDMAN (4) was heavily backed at his second career start last time when up on the speed to record his maiden win. He may have to sit outside the leader, but any further improvement wouldn’t surprise. GOLDEN SCRIPT (2) has not missed a place at her three career starts, she is resuming here but looks a good lay as she will get back in the small field and the tempo may be slow. HONEYSUCKLE CHOICE (7) was a winner on debut, she was a little all over the place but looks to be above average.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 2200m
BY DESIGN (1) wasn’t far away in a similar race to this at Sandown last time, he settled mid-field before dashing quickly to loom, but the run was short-lived. He stuck on ok, but he looks as though he needs to just come with one run.
Dangers:
MARIE ADELAIDE (9) could not have been more impressive at her maiden win last start, she ran on hard from the back and opened up late and the margins between placegetters was also huge. AROHATA (7) has been a little costly for punters at the back-end of this prep, she has had her chances but just can’t seem to find the line. She was beaten at a very short quote last time out at Bendigo but did appear in the steward’s report. She is sure to have admirers and will start near the top of the market. KANSAS CITY (10) is at her sixth start at her first prep which is a little worrying, but the master wouldn’t keep her in work if she wasn’t still going well. She will be mid-field or worse and probably needs to be ridden for luck.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1200m
UNLIMITED ABILITY (4) looks to have just that, both his runs have been on heavy tracks and he is likely to get the sting out of it today. He was heavily backed last time when narrowly beaten after running up to hit the lead after a wide run without cover. Expect that he won’t start far into black figures.
Dangers:
RUCHLA (8) is down in grade but does have to take on the boys as well here, she was a very short priced maiden winner two back and just needs to learn to settle better. SUNDARBANS (10) will find this a lot easier than the Group Three she contested last time, she should settle a lot closer here and if she can bring her form from the synthetic track win two back here she must run a place. PATIENT (9) next best and has won third-up previously but looks a place chance only.
Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1100m
TWILIGHT SONG (4) was last seen at Listed level after winning her first two starts, she has a stack of speed so expect her to use her good gate and attempt to lead all the way. If she is a firmer in the market late expect her to be winning. I have a lot of faith I this stable when they have resuming runners that are solid at the top of betting.
Dangers:
GETEMHEL (5) has been good at both runs this time in, he maps beautifully t get the soft run in behind the leader. So long as the leader doesn’t go for home to early and she has to chase too hard, she looks a great place bet. TARCOOLA SPIRIT (6) will be well in the market, she has a great first-up record, if they go hard look for her late. REWARDING LAUGHTER (7) is a last start winner on the heavy track when up on the speed, she will be up in the pace again and a little more rain around wouldn’t hurt.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1500m
LEGALE (6) missed a place for the first time in his 5-start career last time after having a torrid run three-wide without cover up on the speed. He still showed toughness moving up to join the leaders before fading late, understandably. He is drawn much better here and should be not far from the action early, he was a dominant maiden winner here on a rain affected track three starts ago.
Dangers:
OCTABELLO (7) looks the obvious danger, he was good at Sandown after making a long-sustained run, just may have peaked late, he should be fitter here and the extra distance isn’t an issue. MOSCOW RED (10) rarely runs a bad race and is consistent, she will be giving them a start and the wide draw may mean she is nearer to last than first early. SEDUCTIVE MISS (11) was ok in a harder race against the girls last time, the draw will make it tough for her, they may have to just ride her cold at the back and hope everything goes right.
Race 9: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1300m
APHRODITE ROCK (6) was racing well on the synthetic at her first two runs this campaign, then went to Sandown and although beaten almost three lengths, she was on the worst part of the track on the run home and should have finished closer. She maps to be mid-field and with the right cart into it, should finish strong.
Dangers:
SEE ME EXCEED (5) will start near the top of the market, a little concerning that she still has not won since her debut run. She seemed to have every chance in a similar race at Sandown last start, she looks a great risk and expect her to be a big drifter in the market. GUIPURE (8) has been in the spelling paddock, her 4 career runs have been spaced so she may have had issues, but she certainly looks to have ability. She ran on well enough at her only start on a rain affected track. OUR CHIQUILLA (10) next best, she was also in the wrong part of the track last time when making ground, albeit at huge odds.