BEST BET Race 2 no 6 TROGIR …….a moral!!
NEXT BEST Race 7 no 7 STREETCAR ILLUSION
VALUE BET Race 9 no 12 ARKHAM KNIGHT
Morphettville Parks – Saturday, 25 March 2017
Track: Soft. Weather: Overcast (Patchy rain nearby – 33°C). Rail: +8m 1000m-W/Post, +5m Remainder. Sectional 610m. Main Track: +8m 1200m-W/Post, +5m Remainder. Sectional 610m.
Assessed for: –
Race 1 – UBET SA Derby 13th May Handicap – Open – 1000 – 12:18
Top Pick: Spiritual Girl (1)
Danger: Purrfect Kisses (6)
Each-way: Unscopeable (7)
Multi: Bindabooberri (2), Royale Effort (5), Pantone (4), Dieseleen (3)
Tip Comment: Spiritual Girl displayed good natural pace when leading t’out to score, landing some good wagers on debut, before being immediately spelled. Comes into this off a recent most impressive trial win. Has services of inform rider/trainer combo…hard to beat! Purrfect Kisses debutant that indicated ability in only trial. Gets in especially well after claim-big watch! Unscopeable was far from disgraced when displayed clear improvement at just start 2. Again maps well outside expected leader.
Race Comment: Very hard to predict an accurate map with just the two starters to have greeted the judge thus far. Expect Spiritual Girl($2.10) to be very hard to beat however must admit to showing some interest towards Purrfect Kisses at current $12.
Betting Confidence:
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Race 2 – Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Maiden Plate – Maiden – 1250 – 12:53
Top Pick: Trogir (6)
Only Danger: Weather Channel (8)
Place: Quivers (9)
Multi: Onewood (5), Sagano (3), Bwuva (13), Raine Joy (10)
Tip Comment: Trogir has been far from disgraced placing in both race starts to date with those formlines looking to stack up big time for this just moderate affair. Rise to 1250m appears ideal & does map to settle a lot closer…good thing!! Weather Channel actually hasn’t been too far away in all four race starts to date. Certainly no extra depth here…only possible danger! Quivers both runs back this time in actually haven’t been too bad. Has early pace however may have to work early from wide draw.
Race Comment: Just even tempo with Ceallach, Quivers & Dorawin those likely to be most prominent early with Trogir mapping to be a lot closer. Reckon Trogir is close to a good thing here…would even suggest the early $2 is big overs…betting up big time!!
Betting Confidence:
Race 3 – James Boag’s Premium Handicap – BenchMark 70 – 1250 – 01:33
Top Pick: Call Me Curtis (3)
Each-way: Trueno (6)
Each-way: Murti (1)
Multi: Tycoon Sofie (7), See Me Rollin’ (5), Elzette (4), Goose Green (2)
Tip Comment: Call Me Curtis ran a terrific race when having first run in 8 weeks last start when just missing in much tougher BM82 race, despite covering plenty of extra ground t’out. Certainly better suited here…looks hard to beat! Trueno just love how this bloke has hit the line in his past couple of runs. Reckon rise to this trip is now ideal & gets big positive rider change…value!! The speedy Murti($5.50) comes into this off some super honest recent efforts. Respect Tycoon Sofie($4.80)-trialed well.
Race Comment: Fast tempo with Typhoon Sophie, Commissar & Murti those most likely to be driving hard early. Expect Call Me Curtis($3.10-about right price) to be terribly hard to hold out. Trueno($12) however does however present as a genuine danger at good odds.
Betting Confidence
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Race 4 – Darley Goodwood 20th May Handicap – BenchMark 82 – 2250 – 02:08
Top Pick: Poppiholla (7)
Each-way: Zerprise Journey (3)
Each-way: Royal Request (1)
Multi: I Have a Dream (2), Not So Lady Like (4), Robocop (5), Barge And Charge (8)
Tip Comment: Poppiholla D.Weir visitor that comes into this off the back of some most consistent recent Vic form. Just love the way she has been hitting the line especially of late…sure to appreciate big drop in weight/senior rider. Zerprise Journey basically went out too hard when a beaten fav last start. Likely again goes forward however if settles expect her to give a big sight. Royal Request is flying for the new Stable winning 2/3 last starts. Given a great ride last start-only other chance!
Race Comment: Tempo just average with Honour And Power, Barge And Charge & Zerprise Journey the likely pacemakers. Expect Poppiholla($3.30-about right price) to be terribly hard to hold out. Zerprise Journey($6.50) does however appeal as better option e/way.
Betting Confidence:
Race 5 – Schweppes Oaks 6th May Handicap – BenchMark 70 – 1400 – 02:48
Top Pick: Best Fortune (10)
Danger: Famous Jayne (11)
Roughie: Marco Polo (6)
Multi: Just Resting (9), Lord Topper (8), Pretty Punk (1), Waging War (12)
Tip Comment: Best Fortune likely to appreciate big drop in grade from last start when tackled Stakes company. Also much better suited mapping to settle up on what doesn’t appear an overly strong tempo. Drop back to 1400m ideal-likely big improver! Famous Jayne another on-pace type that has admittedly had every chance when still not disgraced past few runs. Gets in here well with no weight. Marco Polo can admittedly mix his form however is far from hopeless on best efforts. Lord Topper also likely improver.
Race Comment: Open race. Even tempo with Best Fortune, Its Humphrey, Lord Topper & Famous Jayne all likely to work forward. Tipping Best Fortune($5.50) narrowly…is however currently unders! Best early value Famous Jayne($12), Marco Polo($21) & Lord Topper($9).
Betting Confidence:
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Race 6 – Quayclean Handicap – BenchMark 82 – 1250 – 03:28
Top Pick: Beautiful Flyer (6)
Danger: Magic Boy (2)
Trifecta: Chamois Road (9)
Multi: Tycoon Queen (4), Hidden Value (3), C’est Beau La Vie (1), Creance (7)
Tip Comment: Beautiful Flyer admittedly disappointed when appeared to have every possible chance when having first run in 8 weeks in what was a very similar race to this. Form when last in work however reads very well for this & had previously trialled enormous leading into last run-definitely deserving of another chance! Magic Boy super honest type resuming. Overdue/deserves to break through again…does appear well placed! Chamois Road likely leader. Looks hard to catch getting big weight drop!
Race Comment: Just an even tempo with Chamois Road mapping to lead from Beautiful Flyer & Tycoon Queen. Prepared to give Beautiful Flyer($6) another chance especially at the generous e/way odds. Magic Boy($7) also appears value. Hidden Value($26) isn’t hopeless!
Betting Confidence:
Race 7 – Holdfast Insurance Handicap (Heat 1 SA Sprint Series) – BenchMark 82 – 1000 – 04:08
Top Pick: Streetcar Illusion (7)
Each-way: Bay Road (2)
Each-way: I Am Gypsy (1)
Multi: Rugged Angel (5), Super Fun (4), Double Pockets (6), Federal Court (8)
Tip Comment: Streetcar Illusion would be fair to say has had nothing go his way in all three runs back this time in. Surely peaks for this & does appear to get race run ideally to suit. Given even luck watch for him to be charging hard late down on the min-keen!! Bay Road admittedly had every chance when led on just an even tempo 1st-up. Drawn to again lead & meets winner 2kg better here! I Am Gypsy returned to something like her best when just holding on to score 1st-up-2nd-up form actually reads better!
Race Comment: Good tempo with Bay Road, I Am Gypsy, Rugged Angel & Super Fun all looking to drive forward. Expect tempo/smallish field to suit Streetcar Illusion($4) ideally. Deserves a change of luck & will be recommending followers to bet up at the opening odds!
Betting Confidence:
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Race 8 – Adelaide Galvanising Handicap – BenchMark 82 – 1550 – 04:48
Top Pick: Dances On Stars (1)
Danger: Excites Zelady (3)
Each-way: Avoid the Missus (11)
Multi: It And a Bit (2), Tipperary Lil (7), Tildy Lad (5), Saturday Sorcerer (6)
Tip Comment: Dance On Stars produced a huge effort when giving the flying Burning Front a huge scare last start in much tougher race. Admittedly rises sharply in the weights however is a proven weight carrier…drawn ideally! Excites Zelady must be said has had no luck in both runs when still far from disgraced on each occasion. Another likely to enjoy drop in grade & has a good 3rd-up record. Avoid the Missus, It And a Bit (unders-query with big weight?), Tipperary Lil & Tildy Lad all place chances.
Race Comment: Genuine tempo from Cesc, Saturday Sorcerer, Wexford Town & Tildy Lad all expected to work forward from their respective wide draws. Reckon Dances On Stars($3) is a deserved fav however only slightly in front of Excites Zelady($5.50-definite value!).
Betting Confidence:
Race 9 – MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap (Run on Main Track)) – Open – 1600 – 05:25
Top Pick: Morvada (1)
Danger: Silvera (3)
Value: Arkham Knight (12)
Multi: Fully Stoked (4), With a Bit of Dash (5), Miss Identified (6), Posh Journey (2)
Tip Comment: Morvada smart type that has come back terrific this time in including 2nd-up, so game when lumping 61kg. Drops 2kg here after claim & surely only fitter! Silvera displayed plenty of promise in just first prep. Resumed in fine style when far from disgraced behind Hey Doc (formlines since read huge!). Admittedly slightly disappointing 2nd-up-reckon 3rd-up winkers on is a big positive! Arkham Knight had absolutely no luck when still not far away last start-reckon rise to mile is ideal…value!!
Race Comment: Tempo just even at best with Wasabi Bob looking to lead with Morvada, With a Bit of Dash & Posh Journey looking to settle more forward. Hard to go past Morvada($4.20)-hard to beat! Silvera($5.50) big improver whilst Arkham Knight($14) is good value.
Betting Confidence: