Best Bets
Race 3 no 8 Golden Buckleboo
Race 4 no 2 Cool Maverick
Race 6 no 8 Lady Alcatraz
Morphettville Parks – Saturday, 18 March 2017
Track: Good. Weather: Fine (Clear/Sunny – 36°C). Rail: Out 5m 1000m-W/Post; Out 3m the Remainder. Sectional 606m
Assessed for: –
Race 1 – James Boag’s Premium Two-Year-Old Maiden Plate – Maiden – 1000 – 12:48
Top Pick: Split Lip (13)
Danger: Malzoom (5)
Trifecta: Kharir (9)
Multi: Angel’s Wish (7), Purrfect Kisses (12), Golden Lustre (8), Plover Lover (11)
Tip Comment: Split Lip($3.10) displayed ability placing in both race starts when last in work. Has since been given a 10 week freshen-up & also comes into this off a nice recent trial win. Ideally drawn-hard to beat! Malzoom($4.60) resuming. Was simply outclassed when taking on Stakes company on debut before being immediately spelled. Surely finds this easier & drawn the fence-likely big improver! Kharir($9) the 2nd of the Lindsay Park gallopers. Debuts here-big watch!
Race Comment: Tough to predict an accurate speed map with very little exposed form. A race we will probably just be watching at this stage with Split Lip opening a deserved fav. Does however appear at her right price…suggest punters just watch & learn here.
Betting Confidence:
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Race 2 – Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Maiden Plate – Maiden – 1400 – 01:23
Top Pick: Two Odd Sox (7)
Danger: Pujols (5)
Value: The Big Cheese (6)
Multi: Boundary Girl (9), Zapping (2), Faster Logic (3), Aheckstar (13)
Tip Comment: Two Odd Sox($2.60) suggest this bloke is awefully close to a win having hit the line strongly in his three most recent efforts especially. Gets big positive rider change with step up to 1400m also ticking a lot of boxes! Pujols($4.60) actually produced a very similar effort to our top pick(in same race) last week. Interestingly Stable are now claiming here-definite danger! The Big Cheese($18) resuming. Simply didn’t come up last prep. Looked much better when scoring in recent trial-value!
Race Comment: Not too much obvious tempo here & certainly suggest the two strong fancies here in Two Odd Sox & Pujols are more than capable of settling up on the pace. Suggest both runners are at about their right prices with The Big Cheese the best value early.
Betting Confidence:
Race 3 – Darley Goodwood 20th May Handicap – BenchMark 75 – 1950 – 02:03
Top Pick: Golden Buckleboo (8)
Each-way: Celestial Story (4)
Place: Centenary Shot (5)
Multi: Londostar (6), Centre Divider (9), Spanish Halo (1), Flying Paris (7)
Tip Comment: Golden Buckleboo($4.60) thought this bloke was so game when stepping up sharply to the 1800m for the first time last start. Admittedly a query over the 1950m however does appear so well in against these, especially down on the min…expect him to give a big on-pace sight! Celestial Story($4) comes into this off an admittedly disappointing last start effort. Better than that as two previous wins suggest! Centenary Shot($7) recent form most consistent-seriously wouldn’t need to improve much here.
Race Comment: Expect Golden Buckleboo & Centre Divider to both go forward here on just an even tempo. Real keen here on Golden Buckleboo despite stepping up to this trip for first time. Does present as a terrific gamble at the current $4.60…betting up e/way!
Betting Confidence
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Race 4 – Schweppes Oaks 6th May Handicap – BenchMark 64 – 1250 – 02:43
Top Pick: Cool Maverick (2)
Danger: Got That Swing (9)
Trifecta: First Channel (5)
Multi: Deep Conviction (1), Shark Mirage (6), Siliconni (8), Enzo the Barber (4)
Tip Comment: Cool Maverick($7) admittedly well overdue however suggest this 8yo is racing in terrific heart this prep. Surely find this more suitable than last weeks game runner-up effort…senior rider jumps back aboard…value!! Got That Swing($3.80) bursting to break through coming into this off a couple of nice runner-up efforts. Expect her to again run another bold race down on the min. First Channel ($3.80) much improved filly coming into this off the back of two straight wins. Certainly respecting!
Race Comment: Genuine tempo with Shark Mirage & Lets Tango driving forward from both Enzo the Barber & Cool Maverick. Suggest Cool Maverick is another that shapes as a great e/way bet to nothing…the current $7 looks big value.Obviously respecting Got That Swing.
Betting Confidence:
Race 5 – Holdfast Insurance Handicap – BenchMark 70 – 1400 – 03:24
Top Pick: With a Bit of Dash (4)
Danger: Mica Be the One (6)
Trifecta: Zimzala (5)
Multi: Morvada (1), Something More (3), Sweet Varden (9), Galaxy Falls (2)
Tip Comment: With a Bit of Dash($5) thought this filly was terrific when hitting the line strongly in most unsuitable race 1st-up. Was then far from disgraced against the older gallopers when heavily supported last time out. Returns back to own age & reckon rise to 1400m here is now ideal. Mica Be the One($7) overcame difficulties to score strong last start win, also against the older gallopers. Still very much on the up-respecting! Big query Zimzala($4.20) & still wary of Morvada($7.50) despite big weight.
Race Comment: Open little race with Zimzala & My Snip both expected to go forward. Siding with With a Bit of Dash with the current $5 presenting as just slight overs. Mica Be the One is another that appeals at current $7.Also monitoring Morvada despite big weight.
Betting Confidence
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Race 6 – UBET SA Derby 13th May Handicap – BenchMark 64 – 1000 – 04:08
Top Pick: Lady Alcatraz (8)
Each-way: Nodoubtaboutit (2)
Each-way: Vintage Quartz (6)
Multi: Tim’s Principal (3), Toyshop (5), Invisible Girl (4), Cappadocia (7)
Tip Comment: Lady Alcatraz($7) lightly raced/speedy filly resuming. Displayed plenty of promise in just 1st-up including scoring big debut win despite covering a stack of extra ground t’out(defeated Peninsula Links-form since reads huge!). Reckon she can run another big race here at most attractive odds! Nodoubtaboutit($4) strips fitter for having had the two more than solid placings this time in…this probably slightly easier! Vintage Quartz($4) another speedy filly. Drop back to 1000m-big positive!
Race Comment: Strong tempo with Vintage Quartz, Nodoubtaboutit & Lady Alcatraz all mapping to drive hard early. Suggest Lady Alcatrataz presents as a great e/way gamble at opening $7…clear best value in race. Nodoubtaboutit & Vintage Quartz obvious big dangers.
Betting Confidence:
Race 7 – Adelaide Galvanising Handicap – BenchMark 64 – 1000 – 04:48
Top Pick: Bullion Wolf (2)
Danger: The Bronx (1)
Each-way: Super Rules (4)
Multi: Arleigh (12), Captain Parker (9), Wicked Affair (8), Mulder (3)
Tip Comment: Bullion Wolf($8) resuming. Was admittedly slightly disappointing last prep however that was also against much better gallopers than what he meets here. 2yo form prior to that reads huge for this & did like his recent trial! The Bronx($8) another resuming. Has previously finished runner-up in 4/7 previous fresh runs. Gets race run to suit…genuine danger! Respect Super Rules($13)-defeated subsequent winner last start, Arleigh($3.30)-likely big improver, Captain Parker($9) resuming-trialed well.
Race Comment: Big field/strong tempo with Tempting Faith, Captain Parker, Mulder, Wilander Princess & Super Rules all handy. Tough/open race however also suggest this has thrown up a couple of potential good value plays. Horses 2,1&4 the ones that appeal as overs!
Betting Confidence
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Race 8 – MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap – BenchMark 64 – 1400 – 05:23
Top Pick: Eclair Attack (2)
Danger: Roselli Sting (5)
Each-way: Rug Rat (6)
Multi: Vintage Grove (11), Red Begonia (4), Marco Polo (8), Presidium (9)
Tip Comment: Éclair Attack($3.80) although beaten comfortably this bloke has still finished runner-up in his past two outings…both behind two very in-form gallopers. On the 7 day back-up dropping back from a BM75 to a BM64. Again maps nicely & expect him to again be right in the finish. Roselli Sting($4.80) all 3 runs including big 1st-up win this prep have all been in tougher races than this. Reckon rise to 1400m is ideal! Rug Rat($9), Vintage Grove($6), Red Begonia($10) & Marco Polo($15) also chances.
Race Comment: Solid tempo with Just Wally & Point Drummond those most likely to be driving hard early from their respective inside draws. Siding with Éclair Attack ahead of Roselli Sting however both appear well found early. Suggest Rug Rat best early e/w value!
Betting Confidence: