Fierce rivals Sydney and Hawthorn will meet at the SCG on Friday night showdown, with the home side heavily favoured.
Both of these sides had remarkably poor starts to the season, with the Swans suffering an 0-6 start, and Hawthorn 0-4. However, both have had some success since then and come into this match with 3-6 records.
The Swans have now won three in a row and while their wins against Brisbane and North Melbourne were largely par for the course, their victory over St Kilda last week was really impressive. It’s clear that despite their season starting poorly, the Swans are still a force to be reckoned with, and a strong chance to play finals.
Hawthorn have had wins over West Coast, Melbourne and Brisbane, none of them being particularly impressive. Last week they suffered a disappointing defeat to Collingwood – getting off to a good start but taking their foot off the pedal and ultimately getting overtaken. The Hawks have the second lowest percentage in the comp and sit in 17th place. Although they have clicked into gear on occasion, they’ve not done it regularly enough to suggest they belong any higher up the table than that.
Sydney have made only a single chance this week – Harry Cunningham is out with injury, and Oliver Florent comes in as his replacement.
Hawthorn on the other hand have swung the axe and are blooding youth. Kurt Heatherley, Billy Hartung and Will Langford are all out, Dallas Willsmore, Kaiden Brand and James Cousins are in – Willsmore and Cousins as debutants.
Intriguingly, it has been the home team that has lost the last four encounters between these two sides, but that seems unlikely to repeat here. A big win for the Swans is in the offing which makes it Swans -33.5 for us at $1.92.
In a longer term sense, $2.25 for the Swans to play finals will likely shorten if they do put up a big score in this one.