In seven attempts, Gold Coast have never beaten Sydney – is this Saturday the time to do it? Probably not, but they’ll have a crack.
The Swans are the home side, and they know a win here is absolutely vital – like it will be in every game they have left this year – for their chances of playing finals. They are evenly split at the moment, a 7-7 side, and sit at ninth on the ladder. Conventional wisdom suggest they most win at least five, ideally six of their last eight games. In that time though they must go up against all of the AFL’s top three sides – GWS, Adelaide and Geelong. For that reason, they can’t afford to be dropping matches to mid-table teams like Gold Coast. They have won seven of their last eight and last week had a tidy 35-point win over Melbourne.
Gold Coast this year have been likely a kid playing with a light switch, they’ve gone back and forth between on and off so many times it’s hard to keep track. They’ve had some solid wins and they’ve had some really disappointing performance. They’ve haven’t had more than two wins, or two losses, in a row all year. Last week they had a home victory of North Melbourne, celebrating Gary Ablett’s 300th AFL game with a 19-point victory.
There are no changes this week for the Swans, signalling the confidence they have in the side that defeated Melbourne.
Gold Coast have been hit hard by the outs though. Gary Ablett and Pearce Hanley will both miss through injury. Jack Leslie has been dropped. In come Trent McKenzie, Jack Bowes and Darcy Macpherson as the replacements.
As mentioned, Sydney have won all of the seven matches played between these two sides in history, including two at the SCG. In all that time, the Suns have never even gotten within five goals of the Swans at the final siren. Without Ablett, that looks set to continue. $1.57 for Sydney to win by 40+ is the best value on offer.
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