The Hawthorn Hawks will host St Kilda in Launceston in one of the most difficult matches to tip of the week.
While the Saints would have been favoured over the Hawks a week ago, the form of both these teams last week has widely changed opinions.
For St Kilda they had a two-win streak going into their match against Geelong, and at three quarter time looked in position to add a third.
However they were blown away by the Cats in the final quarter and ultimately suffered a demoralising 38-point defeat.
Hawthorn on the other hand, after an 0-4 start to the season that saw them lose two of their matches by more than 80 points, finally got on the board.
They did so in style too, knocking off West Coast at home by a very comfortable 50-point margin – a 136-point turnaround on their last effort.
Now that they have kicked back into gear it’s not hard to imagine the Hawks being a strong team again for the rest of the season – the talent is there.
This week they have one change, Jaeger O’Meara is back after two weeks off from a knock to the knee.
He replaces Cyril Rioli who will miss with a hip injury.
St Kilda will debut former Eagle and Bulldog Koby Stevens and have also brought in Jack Sinclair, replacing Luke Dunstan and Ben Long, both omitted.
The Hawks should draw confidence from the knowledge that they have won six straight matches over the Saints, including a thriller here last year.
St Kilda haven’t knocked over Hawthorn since 2009 – eight years and two senior coaches ago.
Still, in what looks like an evenly-matched contest, St Kilda at slightly larger odds of $2 to win probably provide greater value.
Without Cyril Rioli’s spark, the Hawks may finally be due to drop one to the Saints who look good by 1-39 points at $2.50.