The Essendon Bombers will know that a win is crucial when they take on one of the competition’s worst sides in the Fremantle Dockers.
The equation is probably fairly simple for the Bombers – if they win this one and win well, then only really bad luck could stop them playing finals.
The only team who can catch them on percentage if they win would be the West Coast Eagles, and they need to be Adelaide to do it.
So long as Essendon wallop Fremantle by more than the Eagles can beat the Crows (if they even can), then the red and black will play finals.
What a story that will be after such a long period in the wilderness, massive bans and a wooden spoon last year.
As for the Dockers, well, they are probably in the middle of their worst form every shown under Ross Lyon’s leadership.
In fact, Fremantle have copped back to back 104-point losses, and a total of three defeats by 100 points or more this year.
By comparison to the rest of the league, the other seventeen teams in the game have only the one 100+ defeat between them.
They are at their lowest ebb and haven’t shown anything to suggest they can challenge even a mediocre side, let alone a finals-bound one like Essendon.
Jobe Watson and Travis Colyer are into the side this week for the Dons, they’ve lost Josh Green to a foot injury and dropped Craig Bird.
Fremantle have dropped all of Griffin Logue, Ryan Nyhuis, Josh Delcua and Cam McCarthy, and lost Sean Darcy to suspension.
Lachie Neale is back, and they’ve also got Shane Kersten, Jonathon Griffin, Tommy Sheridan and Sam Collins into the side.
Fremantle have beaten Essendon the last four times the sides have played. In fact, they haven’t played in Melbourne since 2010.
Essendon to win by 40+ isn’t the best value, but seems the like result at $1.70.
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