Carlton have a tough road ahead of them to close out the AFL season, and it starts with a Saturday night meeting against Geelong.
Although the Blues have put in some memorable efforts this year, they have only five wins for the season and the least points scored of any team. They have lost their last five matches in a row and by the looks of their fixture, could lose another five to finish out the season. After the Cats this week, they’re up against Essendon, West Coast, Hawthorn and Sydney. There’s always a chance of them producing a good upset win – but with Patrick Cripps riding the bench for the rest of the year, it’ll be hard. A 30-point loss to Brisbane last week was enormously disappointing for them. They didn’t bring the effort they’ve become known for.
Geelong of course are very much at the opposite end of the table, looking destined for a top-two finish and home qualifying final. Failing to win over Adelaide on the road last week probably ruled them out of the race for top spot, but so long as they can win over one of Sydney or Richmond in the next fortnight they should come in second. From that platform they have ever chance of launching themselves towards a fourth premiership in 11 years.
Carlton have made two changes this week – Nick Graham is dropped, and Harrison Macreadie managed. Caleb Marchbank and Simon White have come into the side as replacements.
Geelong have dropped Rhys Stanley and Zach Guthrie, losing Mark Blicavs to injury and Danile Menzel to general soreness, while also opting to manage Steven Motlop. Andrew Mackie, Wylie Buzza, Nakia Cockatoo, Brandan Parfitt and Jackson Thurlow are the five inclusions for the Cats.
Carlton scored an upset over Geelong last year, but the Cats have won seven of the last eight between the two clubs. That surely continues this week, the only question is by how much. Look for Carlton’s defence to keep it tight enough for us to back Geelong by 1-39 points @ $2.20.
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