Carlton and Richmond open the season with their traditional Round 1 clash on Thursday night, and if history is anything to go by then it should be another win to the yellow and black.
Neither of these sides made the finals last year, although Richmond had done so for three years in a row prior to that. They had a disappointing season in 2016 to say the least, but having made significant off-season changes including the recruitments of Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy and Toby Nankervis, will be hoping to bounce back. All three should debut for the club this week.
Carlton probably overperformed a little last year in the eyes of many – they had a decent streak of wins early in the year under new coach Brendon Bolton, but struggled to be competitive after the bye.
Richmond have won the last four matches between these two sides, and the last three Round 1 encounters in a row. The result this time around doesn’t seem likely to be any different this time around – Richmond’s new recruits should give them a boost, while Carlton look likely to be battlers once again. Expect the Blues to put up a fight on the big stage though. There hasn’t been a margin of 40 or more points between these two sides since Round 1 2012, when Brett Ratten was the Carlton coach. That being the case, Richmond to win by 1-39 for $2.10 looks like decent value.
Another one to consider would be Jack Riewoldt’s total goals – he didn’t boot more than four in a single game last year, but is tipped to play closer to goal in 2017.
If that proves to be the case, Riewoldt to kick at least five goals at $4.50 could be of tempting value. That said, the Blues were a reasonably good defensive team last year, and might not prove so easy to kick a bag against. Four goals at $2.63 might be safer.